Developing a dynamic risk map (DRM) for pipeline construction projects in the Middle East

Abstract

Project risk analysis must be implemented using a systematic approach where project size, data availability and project team requirements are promptly taken into account. However, complex projects are marred with numerous interconnected causes and effects, which make project dynamics rather difficult to understand and control. One approach to overcome this hardship and provide a facility to understand and visualize such dependencies is risk mapping. With emphasis on the pipeline construction sector in the Middle East, the research at hand aims first to identify the most critical risk factors in the denoted sector and then to develop a dynamic risk map (DRM) for it. N2 Diagrams were employed to construct the interdependency relationships of the DRM. The DRM can be utilized in calculating the significance of project risks via posterior probabilities. In this context, the cross impact analysis (CIA) method is proposed as an appropriate computational and reasoning tool. The CIA method is simply a technique designed to predict chances of future events by capturing the interactions among a set of variables. From the DRM it is possible to envisage not only the ultimate effect of a risk on the project but also the incremental steps leading to it. This makes it possible to evaluate the effect of potential risk factors for unlimited project scenarios.

Employing Ant Colony for the Optimal Reduction of Project Risk Severity

“…Identification and assessment of risks benefited from: (1) the literature, (2) unstructured interviews with selected experts in the field, and (3) a questionnaire survey to a large pool of qualified experts in the Middle East region, where some of the authors work. Full details can be found in an earlier publication by the authors [5].…”

“…As such, risk mapping is indispensable to modeling such inter-dependency. The authors, in an earlier research [5], have addressed the development of risk maps in construction projects. The pipeline construction sector was used to exemplify the risk mapping process, where 9 risk groups were identified.…”

“…Furthermore, the poor and inefficient record keeping, which is not uncommon in some construction companies, will complicate the matter further. Accordingly, the authors developed a model that employs indices for the risk treatment decision-making [5,6].…”

Optimal Reduction of Project Risk Severity: A Case Study

“…When used with the CIA capabilities, the DRM becomes a capable tool for evaluating the overall project risk dimension. In this context, the CIA method performs the computations and reasoning operations [4]. …”

“…Meanwhile, some treatment actions could help address a number of risks simultaneously. The research approach adopts dynamic risk maps (DRM) and the cross impact analysis (CIA) method for inter-dependency modelling [4]. Optimizing the risk treatment actions is carried out through balancing the associated costs and benefits [5], whereas ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithm performs the actual optimization process [6].…”