Developing a Cost Overrun Predictive Model for Complex Systems Development Projects

Adoko, Moses T.; Mazzuchi, Thomas A.; Sarkani, Shahram

doi:10.1002/pmj.21545

Cited by 19 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…A falta de precisão no levantamento de dados de campo para execução do projeto gera retrabalho e coloca em risco o prazo de entrega (Jiayuan;Hongping, 2017). Além disso, quanto maior o risco de retrabalho, maior o risco de extracusto (Adoko et. al., 2015;Doloi, 2013;Han et al, 2012;Han et al, 2013;Love et al, 2010, Love et al, 2014Safapour;Kermanshachi, 2019).…”

Section: Retrabalhounclassified

“…A dificuldade no relacionamento com o cliente aumenta à medida que este percebe o risco de ser impactado pelos problemas de cronograma (O'Connor et al, 2016). Além disso, quanto maior o risco de prazo, maior o risco de extracusto devido a ações complementares para reajustar o cronograma do projeto (Adoko et al, 2015; PMI ® , 2017) e maior a pressão do sistema (Bayer;Gann, 2007;Han et al, 2013). Neste aspecto, quanto maior o risco de não cumprimento do prazo, maior será a pressão sobre a equipe do projeto para assumir mais atividades, aumentando sua carga de trabalho (Bayer;Gann, 2007;Jiayuan;Hongping, 2017).…”

Section: Prazounclassified

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Uma análise sistêmica do extracusto em empresas baseadas na venda de projetos

Gontijo¹,

Braga²

2020

S&G

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Fatores que influenciam no risco de extracusto na execução de projetos atraem a atenção de muitos pesquisadores. Porém, cada estudo disponível na literatura foca seus esforços no entendimento de alguns fatores avaliados como relevantes no contexto do problema daquele estudo e, normalmente, sem considerar as interações entre fatores. Esta lacuna de consideração pode levar a conclusões imprecisas sobre os potenciais danos causados pelos problemas que ocorrem ao longo do ciclo de vida do projeto, prejudicando a assertividade no processo de tomada de decisão e representando potencial risco adicional à performance do projeto. O objetivo deste estudo é identificar e integrar, de forma sistêmica, os fatores e respectivas relações causais que influenciam no risco de extracusto de execução em empresas baseadas na venda de projetos. Para tal, realizou-se uma revisão sistemática da literatura (RSL), e as relações entre os fatores identificados foram integradas em um diagrama causal, por meio de uma abordagem sistêmica. Os resultados obtidos podem contribuir para melhor compreensão do complexo sistema que envolve o fenômeno do extracusto e suportar um processo de tomada de decisão mais assertivo. Ao final, apresentam-se algumas limitações e possibilidades de sequência de estudos, por exemplo, o desenvolvimento de um sistema de predição de risco de extracusto, baseado em Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNA).

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Section: Retrabalhounclassified

Section: Prazounclassified

Uma análise sistêmica do extracusto em empresas baseadas na venda de projetos

Gontijo¹,

Braga²

2020

S&G

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“…Welde [42] also sums up several other studies that confirm this pattern. A cost overrun predictive model for complex systems development projects shows the importance of schedule and reliability as determinants of cost overrun [44]. This shows that significant knowledge is available about the reasons for low estimates and there are significant effort made to improve it.…”

Section: Documented Challenges In Current Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges in Cost Estimation under Uncertainty—A Case Study of the Decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant

Torp

Klakegg

2016

Administrative Sciences

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Abstract:Cost estimation is an important part of project planning. Over the years different approaches have developed, taking uncertainty into account in the cost estimation processes in order to tackle the dynamic nature of projects. However, when implementing these approaches, some challenges have been revealed. The aim in a cost estimation process is to establish a realistic overview of the total project costs and its uncertainties. Even though tools and methods for taking uncertainty into account are implemented, projects with cost overruns are often seen. In this paper we look into some challenges with the practice in cost estimation processes and identify possible improvements to overcome them. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate better solutions to some of the major weaknesses identified in current cost estimation practice. We use a case study of decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant to illustrate how to overcome these challenges. First of all, this is an interesting case with challenges related to the project and the cost estimation process, given the complexity in the situation and that very few have experiences related to decommission of nuclear power plants. Second, we applied an approach that is not yet commonly used to develop cost estimates for this kind of projects. The paper concludes that it is possible to improve the results of uncertainty analysis of cost estimates. A well prepared process, with a suitable group of experts that go through a well-structured process, focusing both on risks and opportunities and using a top-down approach can compensate for some of the challenges related to cost estimation under uncertainty.

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“…The law requires Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs and other large-scale federal government projects to report to Congress when they exceed certain established cost overrun thresholds (Schwartz, 2010). This law has been amended many times over the years to reflect evolving federal project management and reporting practices (Adoko, Mazzuchi, & Sarkani, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Project Budget Estimation Accuracy and Precision by Analyzing Reserves for Both Identified and Unidentified Risks

Kwon

Kang

2018

Project Management Journal

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Project risk is a critical factor in estimating project budget. Previous studies on this topic have only addressed estimation methods that consider project budget reserves against identified risks. As a result, project managers still face the challenge of completing projects within given budgets but without the relevant tools to deal with unidentified risks. This study proposes an approach for estimating reserves for both identified and unidentified risks separately. The study also suggests using the three-point estimation technique and R-value determination for estimating risk costs, which can improve budget accuracy and precision. The construction of residential building projects in South Korea demonstrates the advantages of the proposed approach compared with previous methods.

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Developing a Cost Overrun Predictive Model for Complex Systems Development Projects

Abstract: ■While system complexity is on the rise across many product lines, the resources required to successfully design and implement com-

Cited by 19 publications

References 25 publications

Uma análise sistêmica do extracusto em empresas baseadas na venda de projetos

Uma análise sistêmica do extracusto em empresas baseadas na venda de projetos

Challenges in Cost Estimation under Uncertainty—A Case Study of the Decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant

Improving Project Budget Estimation Accuracy and Precision by Analyzing Reserves for Both Identified and Unidentified Risks

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