Developing a consultative Bayesian model for integrated management of aquatic resources: an inland coastal zone case study.

Abstract

This chapter presents the methodological aspects of the development of a decision support system (DSS) based on Bayesian networks and aiming at assisting in the management of water-dependent resources (rice, fish, shrimp and crab). The principles of Bayesian networks are introduced, then the steps of model development are detailed and illustrated by the BayFish model being developed in the inland coastal zone of Bac Lieu Province (Vietnam). The particular feature of this DSS is that it is based on the contribution of local stakeholders. The process of building the model is detailed and illustrated by examples, in particular: the modalities of stakeholder consultations, the progressive arrangement of variables into a structured network, the justifications and weights defining each of the variables, the integration of databases in the model so that it combines quantitative and qualitative information, and the way outputs are calculated. The model, once completed, allows planners and decision-makers to visualize the trade-offs among various water management options. It also highlights the socio-political options and choices inherent to environmental management.

Aquatic resources and environmental variability in Bac Lieu Province (southern Vietnam).

“…In this context, the goals of this study were: (i) to characterize the environmental and aquatic diversity and variability of the study area subject to saltwater management; and (ii) to develop a comprehensive model of aquatic resources in the province (Baran et al, 2006). The latter undertaking aimed to improve the operation of the sluice gates by adding ecological considerations to the water management objectives, which were formerly focused on agronomic criteria only.…”