Deterrence by Punishment or Denial? The eFP Case

Abstract

In 2017 NATO initiated Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) in the Baltics to deter Russia. While most studies analyse eFP from the perspective of NATO or the troop contributing countries, this chapter addresses the question how the host nations, i.e. in this contribution Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, perceive the deterrence strategy underlying eFP as well as their own strategies. In doing this, the chapter emphasizes how strategic culture influences the Baltic countries’ behaviour towards deterrence. We found that in Estonia perspectives on eFP were ambiguous. While official documents reflect the official NATO narrative based on deterrence by punishment other sources stress the illusion, expectation or aspiration of deterrence by denial. In Lithuania, documents, officials and experts emphasize deterrence by denial as opposed to deterrence by punishment. Latvia considers the strategy behind eFP as deterrence by punishment. The strategic cultures, the history and threat perceptions of the Baltic states explain these differences to a large extent. In particular the presence of Russophone minorities in Estonia and Latvia, lead to some reluctance in fully embracing NATO’s strategy, while at the same time both countries prepare to counter Russia’s threat with their allies.