Determining the reliability function of the thermal power system in power plant "Nikola Tesla, Block B1"

Abstract

Representation of probabilistic technique for evaluation of thermal power system reliability is the main subject of this paper. The system of thermal power plant under study consists of three subsystems and the reliability assessment is based on a sixteen-year failure database. By applying the mathematical theory of reliability to exploitation research data and using complex two-parameter Weibull distribution, the theoretical reliability functions of specified system have been determined. Obtained probabilistic laws of failure occurrence have confirmed a hypothesis that the distribution of the observed random variable fully describes behaviour of such a system in terms of reliability. Shown results make possible to acquire a better knowledge of current state of the system, as well as a more accurate estimation of its behavior during future exploitation. Final benefit is opportunity for potential improvement of complex system maintenance policies aimed at the reduction of unexpected failure occurrences.