Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

Rigosi, Anna; Hanson, Paul C.; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew; Rusak, James A.; Bois, Julie; Sparber, Karin; Chorus, Ingrid; Watkinson, Andrew; Qin, Boqiang; Kim, Bomchul; Brookes, Justin D.

doi:10.1890/13-1677.1

Cited by 119 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…In eutrophic waters, and especially where the concentrations of total phosphorus, ammoniacal nitrogen, and nitrate nitrogen exceed 0.1 mg·dm -3 and the total nitrogen exceeds the value of 1.5 mg·dm -3 , cyanobacteria can multiply at a fast rate, which results in the formation of bloom [1][2]. A bloom is the effect of a massive development of various species of phytoplankton groups in water: cyanobacteria, diatoms, chlorophyta.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Occurence of Cyanobacteria Blooms in the Obrzyca River Catchment Area (Poland), a Source of Drinking Water

Piontek¹,

Czyżewska²,

Mankiewicz-Boczek³

2017

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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The issues presented in this study concern the important problem of the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms in surface water used for water supply purposes. The objective of this study was to analyze the occurrence of cyanotoxic risk in the catchment area of the Obrzyca River, which is a source of drinking water for the inhabitants of Zielona Góra. At the points of Uście and at its tributary at Wojnowo, the river was more exposed to the blooms of toxigenic algae, whose active microcystins synthesize more here than in other places (Sadowo, Chwalim, Ostrzyce, Lubiatów). Throughout the study, conducted in 2008-12, we observed several times that the amounts of cyanobacteria exceeded 500·10 3 individuals per litre (ind.·dm , was found at Wojnowo in September 2011. The analysis of the physico-chemical water quality indicators showed that the places along the Obrzyca River where periodic cyanobacterial blooms took place were characterized by eutrophic conditions, and the total nitrogen to total phosphorus ratio (N/P) fell within the range of 10 to 16, and the water temperature exceeded 20ºC. In order to assess the toxic hazard caused by periodic cyanobacterial blooms in the catchment area of the Obrzyca River for drinking water for Zielona Góra residents, regular monitoring of the cyanobacteria and their toxins is required -especially at the points in Uście and Wojnowo as well as at the water intake at the water treatment plant (WTP) in Zawada (in central-western Poland).

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Occurence of Cyanobacteria Blooms in the Obrzyca River Catchment Area (Poland), a Source of Drinking Water

Piontek¹,

Czyżewska²,

Mankiewicz-Boczek³

2017

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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“…Furthermore, a combined effect of climate change and nutrient levels on cyanobacterial bloom growth has been demonstrated by Liu et al (2011) and Gkelis et al (2014). The interactive effect of eutrophication and climate change on the growth of these blooms, particularly future growth, is complex (O'Neil et al 2012), and it varies according to the lake classification, such as a dimictic or polymictic basin (Taranu et al 2012), as well as the lake area (Duan et al 2015), the trophic status (Rigosi et al 2014(Rigosi et al , 2015, and the cyanobacterial taxon (Rigosi et al 2014) or strain (Davis et al 2009). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relationships of meteorological factors and nutrient levels with phytoplankton biomass in a shallow eutrophic lake dominated by cyanobacteria, Lake Dianchi from 1991 to 2013

Zhou

Zhang

Lin

et al. 2016

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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Long-term interannual and monthly (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013) data were analyzed to elucidate the effects of meteorological factors and nutrient levels on phytoplankton biomass in the cyanobacteria-dominated Waihai basin of Lake Dianchi. The interannual ln(chl. a) exhibited positive correlations with the mean air temperature, mean minimum air temperature, and mean maximum air temperature; in addition, a positive relationship between Δln(chl. a) and ΔTP was observed throughout the period. Additionally, ln(chl. a) exhibited a positive correlation with the TP concentration, negative correlations with the sunshine hours and wind speed during the dry season, and positive correlations with the TN and TP concentrations during the rainy season. Furthermore, TP was the most influential factor affecting cyanobacterial bloom dynamics throughout the entire period and during the dry season, and TN and TP were the most important factors during the rainy season, as determined by relative importance analysis. The results of this study based on interannual analysis demonstrated that both meteorological factors and nutrient levels have important roles in controlling cyanobacterial bloom dynamics. The relative importance of these factors may change according to precipitation patterns. Thus, climate change regulation and eutrophication management should be considered in strategies for bloom control. Decreasing the TP load should be prioritized throughout the entire period and during the dry season, and decreasing the TN and TP loads should be considered initially during the rainy season. In addition, further studies of more frequent and complete data acquired over a longer period of time should be conducted in the future.

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“…Understanding the effects of warming on plankton communities is extremely important since it may also contribute to financial losses in terms of human health as well as loss of recreational areas. For example, recent literature has predicted the future increase in potentially harmful phytoplankton blooms (harmful algal blooms, HABs) also in relation to climate change (Rigosi et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of warming on a Mediterranean phytoplankton community

Pulina

Brutemark²,

Suikkanen

et al. 2016

Web Ecol.

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Abstract. Predicting the responses of organisms is a complex challenge especially when water temperature is expected to increase over the coming decades, as a result of global warming. In this work the effects of warming on phytoplankton communities were investigated. An indoor experiment was performed, where water from a Mediterranean lagoon was incubated at different temperatures. Three treatments were applied in triplicate incubation units: the control (11 • C), 3 • C increase (14 • C), and 6 • C increase (17 • C). Our results showed significant effects by warming on phytoplankton. The abundance of relatively smaller taxa (Chlorella sp. and Planktothrix agardhii-rubescens group) increased at 17 • C, whereas the abundance of relatively larger species (Cyclotella sp. and Thalassiosira sp.) decreased, compared with the control. This shift towards smaller taxa resulted in a higher total biomass but lower chlorophyll a concentrations at the highest temperature.

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Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

Cited by 119 publications

References 70 publications

The Occurence of Cyanobacteria Blooms in the Obrzyca River Catchment Area (Poland), a Source of Drinking Water

The Occurence of Cyanobacteria Blooms in the Obrzyca River Catchment Area (Poland), a Source of Drinking Water

The relationships of meteorological factors and nutrient levels with phytoplankton biomass in a shallow eutrophic lake dominated by cyanobacteria, Lake Dianchi from 1991 to 2013

Effects of warming on a Mediterranean phytoplankton community

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