Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling

Abstract

Urmia Lake in Iran is the second largest saline lake in the world. This ecosystem is the home for different species. Due to various socio-economical and ecological criteria, Urmia Lake has important role in the Northwestern part of the country but it has faced many problems in recent years. Because of droughts, overuse of surface water resources and dam constructions, water level has decreased in such a way that one quarter of the lake has changed to saline area in the last 10 years. The purpose of this research is to determine the main factors which reduce the lake's water level. To this end, a simulation model, based on system dynamics method, is developed for the Urmia Lake basin to estimate the lake's level. After successful verification of the model, results show that (among the proposed factors) changes in inflows due to the climate change and overuse of surface water resources is the main factor for 65% of the effect, constructing four dams is responsible for 25% of the problem, and less precipitation on lake has 10% effect on decreasing the lake's level in the recent years. In the future, the model also can be used by managers as a decision support system to find the effects of building new dams or other infrastructures.

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

“…This distinction has made SD a popular framework for analyzing water resource problems (Winz et al 2009;Mirchi et al 2012) that naturally involve complex dynamics and uncertainty (Mirchi et al 2010;Hjorth and Madani 2014). The approach has been implemented to identify climate change impacts on water resources systems Li 2003, 2004;Langsdale et al 2007;Prodanovic and Simonovic 2010;Hassanzadeh et al 2012;Xiao-jun et al 2014).…”

Remotely-Sensed Early Warning Signals of a Critical Transition in a Wetland Ecosystem

“…The variation of the water level in Lake Urmia, derived from Satellite Radar Altimetry data of Jason-3, Jason-1 and TOPEX/P [22] (Figure 2A), shows that this ecosystem dried completely around 2010, and water level fluctuations were lost afterward. The water body in Dorge Sangi displayed serious reduction in both water level and hydroperiods starting in 2003 [23]. The reduction hits a peak in 2006 and lasted until 2013.…”

“…The SPI is a meteorological drought index, recommended by the World Meteorological Organization and measures normalized anomalies in precipitation [24]. The drought periods were not the only reason for reductions in the hydroperiods of the basin [21,23]; the over-use of water wells, instead of using surface water runoff, and filling of surface water canals with sediments (which cut off water flow to the wetlands) led to even further reductions in the water balance of the ecosystem and water level fluctuations. Water level fluctuations may be one of the reasons for the regime shift in Dorge Sangi, as it has negative impacts on species richness [25], and aquatic habitats [26].…”

Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change

“…This has caused the most extreme droughts in the basin over the last few decades during the mid-1990s (Tabari et al 2013). These trends have affected the inflow into the lake (Fathian et al 2014) which has been recognized as the main reason of the lake shrinkage (Hassanzadeh et al 2012). Some studies have estimated how much water is needed to restore (Golabian 2011) and protect the ecology, water quality and quantity of the lake (Abbaspour and Nazaridoust 2007).…”