Determining the importance of model calibration for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes

Niraula, Rewati; Meixner, Thomas; Norman, Laura M.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.007

Cited by 104 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…Urban and agricultural areas continually increased for all the years under review. Urban area extent of 13 37.6% making it the land use type to have received the most significant reduction for the period under study. The reduction in rangeland was mainly due to its conversion into agricultural and urban land uses.…”

Section: Land Use Change Detectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The use of hydrologic models offers the advantage of spatially mapping the patterns of hydrological consequences resulting from LULC changes and allows for the comparison of basinal changes in hydrological components with basinal scale changes in LULC. Numerous studies have illustrated the significant advantages in the application of hydrologic models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) [5,[13][14][15][16][17][18], Système Hydrologique Européen (MIKE-SHE) [19], Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) [20], the Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) [21] and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model [22] in assessing the impacts of LULC on hydrology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrological Responses to Land Use/Cover Changes in the Olifants Basin, South Africa

Gyamfi

Ndambuki

Salim

2016

Water

107

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This paper discusses the hydrological impacts of land use changes on the Olifants Basin in South Africa using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). A three-phase land use scenario (2000, 2007 and 2013) employing the "fix-changing" method was used to simulate the hydrology of the Olifants Basin. Changes in land uses were related to different hydrological responses through a multi-regression analysis to quantify the effects of land use changes. Results reveal that from 2000 to 2013, a 31.6% decrease in rangeland with concomitant increases in agriculture lands (20.1%), urban areas (10.5%) and forest (0.7%) led to a 46.97% increase in surface runoff generation. Further, urbanization was revealed as the strongest contributor to increases in surface runoff generation, water yield and evapotranspiration (ET). ET was found to be a key water availability determinant as it has a high negative impact on surface runoff and water yield. Urbanization and agriculture were the most essential environmental factors influencing water resources of the basin with ET playing a dominant role. The output of the paper provides a simplistic approach of evaluating the impacts of land use changes on water resources. The tools and methods used are relevant for policy directions on water resources planning and adaptation of strategies.

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Section: Land Use Change Detectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Responses to Land Use/Cover Changes in the Olifants Basin, South Africa

Gyamfi

Ndambuki

Salim

2016

Water

107

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“…Another study based on the relationship between precipitation and runoff from 1966 to 1970 showed that runoff mainly decreased due to precipitation before the 2000s and due to human activity thereafter, which became dominant (with a contribution of greater than 76 %) (Zhang et al, 2011). The different results reported by Zuo et al (2014) and Liang et al (2015) suggest that assessing the impacts of LULC and climate changes on runoff in relatively large basins (over 1000 km 2 ) is difficult (Chawla and Mujumdar, 2015;Peng et al, 2015b) due to their complex effects on streamflow (Fu et al, 2007) and the variable boundary conditions (Chen et al, 2011;Niraula et al, 2015).…”

mentioning

confidence: 98%

Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China

Yin

Xiong

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

169

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Abstract. Water resources, which are considerably affected by land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes, are a key limiting factor in highly vulnerable ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. The impacts of LULC and climate changes on water resources must be assessed in these areas. However, conflicting results regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff have been reported in relatively large basins, such as the Jinghe River basin (JRB), which is a typical catchment (> 45 000 km 2 ) located in a semi-humid and arid transition zone on the central Loess Plateau, northwest China. In this study, we focused on quantifying both the combined and isolated impacts of LULC and climate changes on surface runoff. We hypothesized that under climatic warming and drying conditions, LULC changes, which are primarily caused by intensive human activities such as the Grain for Green Program, will considerably alter runoff in the JRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was adopted to perform simulations. The simulated results indicated that although runoff increased very little between the 1970s and the 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate changes, LULC and climate changes affected surface runoff differently in each decade, e.g., runoff increased with increased precipitation between the 1970s and the 1980s (precipitation contributed to 88 % of the runoff increase). Thereafter, runoff decreased and was increasingly influenced by LULC changes, which contributed to 44 % of the runoff changes between the 1980s and 1990s and 71 % of the runoff changes between the 1990s and 2000s. Our findings revealed that large-scale LULC under the Grain for Green Program has had an important effect on the hydrological cycle since the late 1990s. Additionally, the conflicting findings regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff in relatively large basins are likely caused by uncertainties in hydrological simulations.

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“…However, it has been proven that calibration is not necessary for the SWAT model to determine the direction of changes in streamflow due to LULC changes, and that only spatially distributed calibration procedures can improve model accuracy. There is also little difference between uncalibrated models and models calibrated with a single output in predicting relative changes in streamflow [37].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planting Waterscapes: Green Infrastructures, Landscape and Hydrological Modeling for the Future of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia

Castelli

Foderi

Guzman³

et al. 2017

Forests

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Abstract:The expansion of cities is an emerging and critical issue for the future of the planet. Water is one of the most important resources provided by urban and peri-urban landscapes, as it is directly or indirectly connected with the quality of the environment and life. Santa Cruz de la Sierra is the leading city in Bolivia (and the second in Latin America) in regard to population growth and soil sealing. Water is available to the city mostly from the Piraí River basin, and is expected to be totally inadequate to support such powerful urban development. The project Aguacruz, which is financed by the Italian Agency for Cooperation and Development, aimed to (1) restructure and harmonize existing data on the landscape ecology, hydrological features, and functional aspects of the Piraí River; (2) build hydrological scenarios for the future of the basin by introducing a landscape ecology approach, and (3) involve stakeholders and local actors in decision-making processes oriented to increase the resilience of the urban-rural landscape of the Piraì River and the city of Santa Cruz. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools) tested five scenarios through simulating different landscape settings, from the current previsions for urban expansion to a sound implementation of green infrastructures, agroforestry, and regreening. The results indicate that integrated actions in rural-urban systems can lead to a substantial reversal of the trend toward a decline in water supply for the city. From a governance and planning perspective, the proposed actions have been configured as to induce (i) integrated waterscape ecological planning; and (ii) the preparation and approval of departmental regulations for the incorporation of green infrastructures in the municipalities.

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Determining the importance of model calibration for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes

Cited by 104 publications

References 81 publications

Hydrological Responses to Land Use/Cover Changes in the Olifants Basin, South Africa

Hydrological Responses to Land Use/Cover Changes in the Olifants Basin, South Africa

Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China

Planting Waterscapes: Green Infrastructures, Landscape and Hydrological Modeling for the Future of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia

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