Determining the Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in Italy: Novel Epidemiological Study

Abstract

Background COVID-19, which emerged in December 2019, has spread rapidly around the world and has become a serious public health event endangering human life. With regard to COVID-19, there are still many unknowns, such as the exact case fatality rate (CFR). Objective The main objective of this study was to explore the value of the discharged CFR (DCFR) to make more accurate forecasts of epidemic trends of COVID-19 in Italy. Methods We retrieved the epidemiological data of COVID-19 in Italy published by the John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. We then used the proportion of deaths to discharged cases（including deaths and recovered cases） to calculate the total DCFR (tDCFR), monthly DCFR (mDCFR), and stage DCFR (sDCFR). Furthermore, we analyzed the trend in the mDCFR between January and December 2020 using joinpoint regression analysis, used ArcGIS version 10.7 to visualize the spatial distribution of the epidemic CFR, and assigned different colors to each province based on the CFR or tDCFR. Results We calculated the numbers and obtained the new indices of the tDCFR and mDCFR for calculating the fatality rate. The results showed that the tDCFR and mDCFR fluctuated greatly from January to May. They first showed a rapid increase followed by a rapid decline after reaching the peak. The map showed that the provinces with a high tDCFR were Emilia-Romagna, Puglia, and Lombardia. The change trend of the mDCFR over time was divided into the following 2 stages: the first stage (from January to May) and the second stage (from June to December). With regard to worldwide COVID-19 statistics, among 6 selected countries, the United States had the highest tDCFR (4.26%), while the tDCFR of the remaining countries was between 0.98% and 2.72%. Conclusions We provide a new perspective for assessing the fatality of COVID-19 in Italy, which can use ever-changing data to calculate a more accurate CFR and scientifically predict the development trend of the epidemic.

The value of discharged case fatality rate in estimating the severity and epidemic trend of COVID-19 in China: a novel epidemiological study

“…DCFR includes the total discharged case fatality rate (tDCFR), daily discharged case fatality rate (dDCFR), and stage discharged case fatality rate (sDCFR). The tDCFR is the proportion of deaths among discharged cases in the entire pandemic, dDCFR is the proportion of deaths among discharged cases on any one day, and sDCFR is the proportion of deaths among discharged cases at any particular stage (Yan et al 2022 ).…”

“…Therefore, we developed a new epidemiological method to assess the overall situation of COVID-19 in a timely manner. In our previous study, the DCFR was introduced as a new evaluation index instead of CFR to analyze the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy (Yan et al 2022 ). This is a valid approach since the epidemiology of infectious disease not only focuses on the severity but also the trend (Adiga et al 2020 ; Wu and Cowling 2011 ).…”

The Dynamics of Bangladesh-Us Relations: Does Us Foreign Policy Focus on Democracy and Human Rights or Geopolitical Interests?

“…1, 2024 p-ISSN: 1829 -6580 , e-ISSN: 28095642 spektrumfisip@unwahas. ac.id The Dynamics Of Bangladesh-US Relations... the world's economy has been hit hard by COVID-19, the United States has suffered the most fatalities in the world (Yan, 2022). So far, they are the worst affected countries; China's continued economic rise in the face of the situation could lead to dramatic changes in the global political and economic scenario in the coming days (Jenkins, 2022).…”