Determining Economic Benefits of Satellite Data in Short-Range Forecasting

Abstract

To examine whether the addition of satellite data to forecasting procedures helps forecasters make better forecasts, we studied a meteorological consulting firm and its clients before and after satellite data were used in the preparation of weather forecasts, and whether the clients benefited from this new data source. We found that the satellite data were most valuable when they could be looped to show evolving cloud patterns and enhanced to show brightness differences. The satellite data would have been even more useful if the dissemination system were more flexible and the images were not pregridded. Our main conclusions are: 1) Satellite data are most useful to forecasters in data-poor areas and also help to fine-tune forecasts in data-rich areas. Because even slight improvements in forecast accuracy can result in sizable savings for clients, the use of satellite data can produce a significant economic benefit. 2) Working with satellite data is a valuable educational experience for forecasters and undoubtedly improves their forecasting skills. 3) Any future satellite data delivery system should take into account the needs and facilities of the user community. Finally, we have shown that it is possible, using real data in actual situations, to help determine some of the economic effects of a new tool and the ways it can be used to bring about greater public benefits.

Socioeconomic Analysis of the Potential Benefits of Modernizing Hydrometeorological Services in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic

“…The formal mathematical expression and empirical evaluation linking VOI to the expected outcomes of decisions can take many forms depending on the decision context and research methods. Common approaches include modeling decision making at the firm level based on profit maximization or loss minimization (Suchman, Auvine, and Hinton 1981;Mjelde, Sonka, and Peel 1989) or modeling decisions at the individual level in a utility-theoretic framework (Hilton 1981;Mjelde Sonka, and Peel 1989;Murphy 1993;Johnson and Holt 1997).…”

Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Real-Time High-Resolution Model Evaluation

“…The key to this visualization technique is animated imagery, as this is a particularly useful way of viewing large amounts of data (Grotjahn and Chervin 1984). Satellite data are most valuable when they are animated and enhanced with a color table (Suchman et al 1981).…”