Determination of rainfed wheat agriculture potential through assimilation of remote sensing data with SWAT model case study: ZarrinehRoud Basin, Iran

Abstract

Considering the importance of rainfed agriculture in adaptation to nature and long-term sustainability in human food supply and livelihood of farmers, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the potential of rainfed agriculture in the Zarrinehroud basin as this basin is one of the most important sub-basins of Lake Urmia. For this study, the remote sensing data of surface soil moisture and evapotranspiration were combined with the SWAT model using the Data Assimilation method, Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Calibration of runoff flow rate in SWAT model showed the correlation coefficient ranging between 0.69 and 0.84 in the calibration period (2000–2009) and between 0.64 and 0.86 for the validation period (2010–2014). The assimilation of the remote sensing data with the calibrated SWAT model showed that the model simulations for both the variables of surface soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration improved by at least 25% in both 2010 and 2014. It has been determined that 10.5 and 25.4% of the region's lands have a Very Appropriate and Appropriate potential for rainfed wheat agriculture, respectively. Areas with Moderate and Inappropriate potential occupy 64.1% of the lands in the region.

Identifying the Best Strategies for Improving and Developing Sustainable Rain-Fed Agriculture: An Integrated SWOT-BWM-WASPAS Approach

“…According to forecasts, approximately 65 countries accommodating more than seven billion people would face severe water shortages by 2050. Moreover, about 1.2 billion people live in areas where severe lack of water and frequent occurrence of droughts have caused many problems for this type of agriculture [6,7]. As rain-fed farming is the most typical form of agriculture in these areas, water shortages cause more critical problems [8].…”

“…For instance, 75% of the arable lands in North Africa and the Near East, Agriculture 2023, 13, 1215 2 of 16 about 90% of the agricultural lands in Latin America, 95% of the farming lands in sub-Saharan Africa, and nearly 60% of the cultivated lands in South Asia are potentially capable of being rain-fed. Therefore, rain-fed agriculture has enormous potential to meet the food demands of the world's growing population [7].…”

“…Several studies have attempted to identify the factors involved in rain-fed agriculture [5,7,[16][17][18][19][20][21], suggesting different strategies such as determining the optimal amount of fertilizer consumption [19], product insurance [20], improving mechanization [5] and applying smart farming practices [18], etc. In this regard, the studies used various quantitative and qualitative methods, including econometrics, artificial intelligence, laboratory studies, and review of the related literature.…”