Determination of Possible Responses of Radon-222, Magnetic Effects, and Total Electron Content to Earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: An ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Around the world, earthquake forecasting studies have become very important nowadays due to the increase in number of fatal earthquakes annually. This paper proposes to achieve a possible relationship between soil radon gas concentration and atmospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) during earthquakes taking into account magnetic effects on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkiye. The ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) are employed for determining radon gas concentrations by taking into account magnetic effects as an innovative approach. In the study area relatively small and medium-scale earthquakes have taken place during the observation period. As a result of the investigations, the relationships between each of the parameters and earthquakes are determined, and hence, a good relationship is obtained between Rn gas anomaly and micro-seismic activity. In the ionosphere, geomagnetic activity has a primary impact and long duration on TEC distribution, but due to micro-seismic events it has rather small influence. The proposed ARIMA and MCS simulations to detect changes in soil Rn gas concentrations have significant results for detecting micro-seismic activity anomalies.

ARIMA Model Analysis of the Regularities of Earthquake Origin Times in the Longmen Mountain Fault Zone

“…The ARIMA model is an effective time series analysis method for earthquake studies. Some scholars have used the ARIMA model to analyze and identify the anomalies in geophysical data information before historical earthquakes [Han et al, 1986], such as the anomalies in the ionosphere [Saqib et al, 2021;Zhai et al, 2021;Zhai et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2013], electromagnetism and geoacoustic [Saqib et al, 2022;Mohammed et al, 2021;Zhang et al, 2019] and geothermal [Zhai et al, 2020;, and then determine the abnormal standards and predict the earthquake origin times according to the time of anomalies occurrences. Normally, earthquakes will occur around the 15th day after the continuous appearances of the anomalies, so this kind of methods has high accuracies, yet it also has some limitations.…”