Determinants of Time-to-recovery from Hypertension using a Comparison of Various Parametric Shared Frailty Models: In Case of Felege Hiwot Refral Hospital.

Abstract

Background: Hypertension is a major public health problem that is responsible for morbidity and mortality. In Ethiopia hypertension is becoming a double burden due to urbanization. The study aimed to identify factors that affect time-to-recovery from hypertension at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital. Retrospective study design was used at FHRH. Methods: The data was collected in patient’s chart from September 2016 to January 2018. Kaplan-Meier survival estimate and Log-Rank test were used to compare the survival time. The AFT and parametric shared frailty models were employed to identify factors associated with the recovery time of hypertension patients. All the fitted models were compared by using AIC and BIC. Results: Eighty one percent of sampled patients were recovered to normal condition and nineteen percent of patients were censored observations. The median survival time of hypertensive patients to attain normal condition was 13 months. Weibull- inverse Gaussian shared frailty model was found to be the best model for predicting recovery time of hypertension patients. The unobserved heterogeneity in residences as estimated by the Weibull-Inverse Gaussian shared frailty model was θ=0.385 (p-value=0.00). Conclusion: The final model showed that age, systolic blood pressure, related disease, creantine, blood urea nitrogen and the interaction between blood urea nitrogen and age were the determinants factors of recovery status of patients at 5% level of significance. The result showed that patients creantine >1.5 Mg/dl compared to creantine ≤1.5 Mg/dl and SBP were prolonged the recovery time of patients whereas patients having kidney disease, other disease and had no any disease compared to diabetic patients and the interaction BUN and age were shorten recovery status of hypertension patients.