Determinants of Tertiary Graduations

Abstract

Complete document available on OLIS in its original formatThis document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. ECO/WKP(2014)34 Unclassified English -Or. English ECO/WKP(2014)34 2 OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s).Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works. Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France.Comment on the Papers is invited, and may be sent to OECD Economics Department, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France, or by e-mail to eco.contact@oecd.org. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. © OECD (2015)You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to rights@oecd.org ECO/WKP(2014)34 3 Abstract/Résumé Determinants of Tertiary GraduationsThis paper proposes and estimates a model of demand for and supply of graduations in tertiary education, which is then used to construct forward-looking scenarios for graduation rates by country. Consistent with evidence that economic returns to education have remained high in spite of rising educational attainment levels, the paper accords a great deal of attention to developments in gross earnings at various levels of the earnings distribution, though other factors are also accounted for. The analysis shows that demand for tertiary graduations increases in per capita incomes, wage differentials between high and medium earners, and PISA scores. Supply of graduations increases in tuitions and (to a lesser extent) government funding, but also in the share of students enrolled in private institutions and PISA scores. Based on the OECD 50-year scenarios for per capita incomes and earning inequalities (Braconier et al., 2014), the estimated model is used to generate future scenarios of demand for tertiary educa...

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“…The study by Braconier (2014) [80] provided us with the determinants of the share of the population aged 25 to 64 with tertiary education. The determinants outlined are the gross earning differentials D9/D5 (ninth decile/fifth decile of income), the gross earning differentials D5/D1, the employment ratio for individuals with a tertiary education in relation to individuals with a secondary education, the unemployment rate, the government direct expenditure per student in US dollars at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), the share of students in tertiary private institutions, the GRP per capita and the tuition fees charged by public tertiary educational institutions to national students.…”