Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerability

Cardona, Omar D.; Aalst, Maarten van; Birkmann, Joern; Fordham, Maureen; McGregor, Glenn R.; Pérez, Rosa T.; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Schipper, E. Lisa F.; Sinh, Bach Tan; Décamps, Henri; Keim, Mark; Davis, Ian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lavell, Allan; Mechler, Reinhard; Murray, Virginia; Pelling, Mark; Pohl, Jürgen; Smith, Anthony-Oliver; Thomalla, Frank

doi:10.1017/cbo9781139177245.005

Cited by 405 publications

(189 citation statements)

References 227 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

181

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…In fact, not all natural hazards events become a disaster and massive losses and damages are, to a certain extent, preventable. The levels of adverse impacts are determined by exposure and the vulnerability of societies and socio-ecological systems (Cardona et al 2012). Exposure could lead to a disaster risk when the population and economic resources are exposed to potentially dangerous settings.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Education a Key to Reducing Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and hence Unavoidable Climate Change?

Muttarak¹,

Lutz²

2014

E&S

242

140

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ABSTRACT. The collection of articles in this Special Feature is part of a larger project on "Forecasting Societies' Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change" (an Advanced Grant of the European Research Council to Wolfgang Lutz). In investigating how global change will affect population vulnerability to climate variability and extremes, the project aims to help develop strategies that enable societies to better cope with the consequences of climate change. In doing so, the basic hypothesis being tested is that societies can develop the most effective long-term defense against the dangers of climate change by strengthening human capacity, primarily through education. Education can directly influence risk perception, skills and knowledge and indirectly reduce poverty, improve health and promote access to information and resources. Hence, when facing natural hazards or climate risks, educated individuals, households and societies are assumed to be more empowered and more adaptive in their response to, preparation for, and recovery from disasters. Indeed the findings from eleven original empirical studies set in diverse geographic, socioeconomic, cultural and hazard contexts provide consistent and robust evidence on the positive impact of formal education on vulnerability reduction. Highly educated individuals and societies are reported to have better preparedness and response to the disasters, suffered lower negative impacts, and are able to recover faster. This suggests that public investment in empowering people and enhancing human capacity through education can have a positive externality in reducing vulnerability and strengthening adaptive capacity amidst the challenges of a changing climate.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Education a Key to Reducing Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and hence Unavoidable Climate Change?

Muttarak¹,

Lutz²

2014

E&S

242

140

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Las condiciones de alta vulnerabilidad y exposición son principalmente el resultado de los sesgados procesos de desarrollo, incluyendo aquellos relacionados con la mala gestión del medio ambiente, los cambios demográficos, la urbanización rápida y no planificada, y la escasez de opciones de medios de vida para los grupos sociales desfavorecidos (Cardona et al, 2012). El caso de Costa Rica no dista de esta realidad, lo que se refleja en municipios y comunidades, aumentando la probabilidad de que procesos naturales se vuelvan peligrosos en entornos especialmente urbanos.…”

Section: Análisis Del Riesgo En El Cantón De Desamparadosunclassified

Gestión del riesgo y política pública en el cantón de Desamparados, Costa Rica

Quesada‐Román¹,

Calderón-Ramírez²

2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ResumenDesamparados es uno de los cantones de Costa Rica más afectados por los riesgos naturales, según datos registrados de los últimos 45 años. Sus características físico-geográficas y socioeconómicas, así como el desarrollo urbano sin una planificación territorial efectiva generan mayor presión para contribuir al riesgo de desastre. Esta unidad político-administrativa es un verdadero reto para la gestión del riesgo de desastres y el ordenamiento territorial desde la política pública, ya que mezcla una serie de paisajes rurales y urbanos, además del impacto recurrente de deslizamientos e inundaciones con un marco jurídico entrabado para solventar estas problemáticas socioambientales.Palabras clave: riesgos naturales; desastres; vulnerabilidad; ordenamiento territorial; Desamparados AbstractDesamparados is one of the counties most affected by natural hazards each year in Costa Rica during the last 45 years. Their physical-geographical and socioeconomic characteristics, urban development without effective land use planning on risk areas generate economic and human losses. This political-administrative unit is a real challenge to manage disaster risk and land use planning from public policy as it mixes a number of rural and urban landscapes, in addition to the recurring impact of landslides and floods with hindered legal framework for address these social and environmental problems. ResumoDesamparados é um dos municípios da Costa Rica mais afetados pelos riscos naturais, segundo dados registrados dos últimos 45 anos. Suas características físico-geográficas e socioeconômicas e também o desenvolvimento urbano sem uma planificação territorial efetiva geram maior pressão no favorecimento de risco de desastre. Esta unidade político-administrativa é um verdadeiro desafio para a gestão do risco de desastres e do ordenamento territorial desde a política pública, já que mescla uma serie de paisagens rurais e urbanas, além do impacto incessante de deslizamentos e inundações com um marco jurídico travado para solucionar estas problemáticas socioambientais.Palavras-chave: riscos naturais; desastres; vulnerabilidade; ordenamento territorial; Desamparados L a gestión del riesgo ha evolucionado con el pasar de los años, involucrán-dose una diversidad de agentes económicos, políticos, naturales y sociales. Un medio para solventar la situación del riesgo a desastre es llevado a cabo con la política pública. El llamado a instituciones e investigadores a discutir sobre el tema del riesgo al desastre ha generado avances significativos sobre las razones que lo generan, ocasionando que el Gobierno adopte medidas para prevenir la complejidad de situaciones que los desastres ocasionan. En la gestión del riesgo hay que considerar distintos escenarios, desde la desarticulación y limitación del funcionamiento de los agentes políticos hasta la insistencia y necesidad de los agentes sociales. Para conocer más a fondo el tema en discusión, es importante resaltar que Costa Rica resulta de una configuración tectónica compleja relacionada con ...

show abstract

“…the probability of a house being destroyed by a specific fire. This framework dates back to 1980 (Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Co-ordinator (UNDRO) 1980) and is commonly used in earthquake (Carreño et al 2007), flood (Kron 2002) or landslide (Guzzetti et al 2005) risk assessments; it has also been adopted by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Cardona et al 2012).…”

Section: Risk Assessment Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic prediction of wildfire economic losses to housing in Cyprus using Bayesian network analysis

Papakosta

Xanthopoulos²,

Straub

2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Loss prediction models are an important part of wildfire risk assessment, but have received only limited attention in the scientific literature. Such models can support decision-making on preventive measures targeting fuels or potential ignition sources, on fire suppression, on mitigation of consequences and on effective allocation of funds. This paper presents a probabilistic model for predicting wildfire housing loss at the mesoscale (1 km 2 ) using Bayesian network (BN) analysis. The BN enables the construction of an integrated model based on causal relationships among the influencing parameters jointly with the associated uncertainties. Input data and models are gathered from literature and expert knowledge to overcome the lack of housing loss data in the study area. Numerical investigations are carried out with spatiotemporal datasets for the Mediterranean island of Cyprus. The BN is coupled with a geographic information system (GIS) and the resulting estimated house damages for a given fire hazard are shown in maps. The BN model can be attached to a wildfire hazard model to determine wildfire risk in a spatially explicit manner. The developed model is specific to areas with house characteristics similar to those found in Cyprus, but the general methodology is transferable to any other area, as well as other damages.

show abstract

Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerability

Cited by 405 publications

References 227 publications

Is Education a Key to Reducing Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and hence Unavoidable Climate Change?

Is Education a Key to Reducing Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and hence Unavoidable Climate Change?

Gestión del riesgo y política pública en el cantón de Desamparados, Costa Rica

Probabilistic prediction of wildfire economic losses to housing in Cyprus using Bayesian network analysis

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About