Determinants of motor vehicle deaths in the united states: A cross-sectional analysis

Zlatoper, Thomas J.

doi:10.1016/0001-4575(91)90062-a

Cited by 62 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Lave (1985) and Forester and colleagues (1984) were among the first to argue that variation in driving speeds (i.e., many fast drivers, many slow drivers) also causes fatalities by creating more vehicle overtakings and thus more opportunities for collision. The important role of speed variation is confirmed across a number of studies utilizing a range of model specifications (Fowles and Loeb 1989;Levy and Asch 1989;Snyder 1989;Zlatoper 1991). A limitation of several of the maximum-speed-limit studies cited above is that they do not incorporate speed variance into the analysis.…”

Section: Maximum-speed-limit Lawsmentioning

confidence: 94%

The Effect of State Regulations on Motor Vehicle Fatalities for Younger and Older Drivers: A Review and Analysis

Grabowski

Morrisey

2001

Milbank Quarterly

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Policymakers have had a long‐standing interest in improving the motor vehicle safety of both younger and older drivers. Although younger and older drivers share the distinction of having more crashes and fatalities per mile driven than other age groups, the problems posed by these two groups stem from different origins and manifest in different ways. A number of state‐level policies and regulations may affect the number of motor vehicle crashes and fatalities in these two high‐risk groups. A critical review of the existing literature in regard to the risk factors and the effects of various policy measures on motor vehicle crashes in these two high‐risk populations provides direction for policymakers and high‐priority areas of interest for the research community.

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Section: Maximum-speed-limit Lawsmentioning

confidence: 94%

The Effect of State Regulations on Motor Vehicle Fatalities for Younger and Older Drivers: A Review and Analysis

Grabowski

Morrisey

2001

Milbank Quarterly

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“…Important contributions in the area of macroscopic models were made by Robertson (1981), Jocksch (1984, Graham and Garber (1984), Partyka (1984Partyka ( , 1991 and Zlatoper (1984Zlatoper ( , 1987Zlatoper ( , 1989Zlatoper ( , 1991. Later, Hakim, Shefy, Hakkert, and Hocherman (1991) and Lassarre (1994) undertook an in-depth review of the methodologies used and the results obtained concerning the main risk factors.…”

Section: State-of-the-artmentioning

confidence: 99%

The interurban DRAG-Spain model: The main factors of influence on road accidents in Spain

Izquierdo¹,

Ramírez²,

Rodríguez³

2013

Research in Transportation Economics

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This paper presents the results of applying DRAG methodology to the identification of the main factors of influence on the number of injury and fatal accidents occurring on Spain's interurban network. Nineteen independent variables have been included in the model grouped together under ten categories: exposure, infrastructure, weather, drivers, economic variables, vehicle stock, surveillance, speed and legislative measures. Highly interesting conclusions can be reached from the results on the basis of the different effects of a single variable on each of the accident types according to severity. The greatest influence revealed by the results is exposure, which together with inexperienced drivers, speed and an ageing vehicle stock, have a negative effect, while the increased surveillance on roads, the improvement in the technological features of vehicles and the proportion of high capacity networks have a positive effect, since the results obtained show a significant drop in accidents.

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“…Interestingly, as Lave (1989) notes in his reply/rebuttal, their findings provide evidence for both the variance and speed kills theories. Garber and Ehrhart (2000), Forester et al (1984), and Zlatoper (1991) also concluded that variance, as well as average speed, contribute to crash frequency. However, none of these studies may reflect correct driving speed behaviors since all use spatially and temporarally aggregated speeds, which are subject to an "ecological fallacy."…”

Section: Effects Of Speed Conditions On Safetymentioning

confidence: 99%

Safety Effects of Speed Limit Changes: Use of Panel Models, Including Speed, Use, and Design Variables

Kweon

Kockelman

2005

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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This work estimates the total safety effects of speed limit changes on high-speed roadways using traffic detector data and Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) data from 1993 to 1996. In order to gauge the total effects, this study applies a sequential modeling approach wherein average speed and speed variance models are first estimated, based on roadway design, use and speed limit information. Then, crash counts (of varying severity) are estimated, based on the speed estimates, design, and use variables. The four years of data come from 63,937 "homogeneous" roadway segments along 7 interstates and 143 state highways in Washington State. A random-effects negative binomial model was selected among several alternative panel and non-panel models for count data. Results indicate that the average road segment in the data set can be expected to exhibit lower non-fatal crash rates up to a 55 mph (88 km/h) speed limit. In contrast, fatality rates appear unresponsive to speed limit changes. Fatal and non-fatal rates fall for design reasons, including wider shoulders and more gradual curves, which appear to be key design variables. However, fatal and non-fatal rates move differently when traffic levels rise, with non-fatal rates remaining unchanged and fatal rates falling.Key Words: Speed limit; Traffic Crash; Panel model; Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) -2 - INTRODUCTIONSpeed limit changes in the U.S. have been made at local and national levels without a thorough understanding of traffic safety consequences. These changes affect speed choices, which affect crash frequency and severity. However, speed choices are only barely recognized in studies aimed at evaluating the effects of speed limit changes on roadway safety. This lack of speed consideration may be attributable to a general lack of extensive speed data.Some speed limit studies have attempted to control for chosen travel speeds by including coarse speed averages and/or variance values (e.g., Rodriguez 1990 andLave 1985). They have relied on highly aggregate speed data (e.g., Rodriquez's [1990] data were at the national level, while Lave's [1985] were at the state level). Such aggregation obscures most distributional information about individual traveler speed choices. Golob and Recker (2003) assembled crash and traffic flow data at the 30-second aggregation level on California highways, yet did not include road design variables.In addition to a lack of chosen speed information, roadway design features are rarely accounted for in speed limit safety studies, although, along with speed, they are recognized as a critical factor in traffic safety. Some speed limit studies (e.g. Lave 1985, Lave and Elias 1994, and Greenstone 2002 have attempted to control for overall design effects by separately analyzing crash counts on different road types (e.g., all interstate, arterial, and collector roads in each state). However, they have failed to include detailed geometric information, primarily due to aggregation of non-homogeneous roadway segments. Again...

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Determinants of motor vehicle deaths in the united states: A cross-sectional analysis

Cited by 62 publications

References 6 publications

The Effect of State Regulations on Motor Vehicle Fatalities for Younger and Older Drivers: A Review and Analysis

The Effect of State Regulations on Motor Vehicle Fatalities for Younger and Older Drivers: A Review and Analysis

The interurban DRAG-Spain model: The main factors of influence on road accidents in Spain

Safety Effects of Speed Limit Changes: Use of Panel Models, Including Speed, Use, and Design Variables

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