Determinants of Financial Crises in Russia and Other Transition Economies: An Empirical Test

Abstract

Abstract： The goal of this study is to assess the relative contributions of different vulnerability factors to the crises in Russia and other European transition economies. The results of probit estimations and decomposition of simulated crisis probabilities suggest that external capital flows and financial sector weaknesses played a crucial part in undermining the stability of the currencies. The government finance problems and real appreciation, commonly thought to be the main causes of the crises, had a comparatively minor role in the financial turmoil in Russia and other transition economies. ［Keywords： financial crisis, currency crisis, exchange market pressure, probit］ [Article]