Determinants of external debt, export-import, FDI, exchange rate, to foreign exchange reserves through balance of payments as intervening variables

Abstract

Foreign exchange reserves are interpreted as part of national savings and are a very important monetary indicator to show the strength or weakness of the country's economic fundamentals. Foreign exchange reserves is influenced by various factors, including; external debt, exports, imports, investment, and balance of payments. The purpose of this study is to analyze the determination (degree of influence) of factors of foreign debt, import exports, FDI, exchange rates, on foreign exchange reserves through and balance of payments (BOP). The research method used is a quantitative research method with secondary data types in the form of data series with a period of 12 years (2011-2022). The data analysis method used is path analysis. With the help of E-views software. The results of the analysis p there is a structure/path I obtained that the exchange rate variable has a real effect on the BOP (balance sheet), In the structure/path I it is obtained that the exchange rate variable has a real effect on the BOP. While simultaneously (together) it is known that the variables X1, X2, X3, X4, and X5 not significant effect on Y1 (balance of payments). The results of the structure/path II analysis found that the external debt variable had a real effect on the country's foreign exchange reserves, and simultaneously (together) it was known that the variables X1, X2, X3, X4, X5 and X6/Y1 had a real effect on Y2 (foreign exchange reserves). In addition, it was also found that the balance of payments /BOP variable as an intervening variable did not have a real effect on foreign exchange reserves.