“…The independent variables were chosen according to the literature studied, as well as considering the availability of information in Ecuador's public databases. The following macro variables were considered: monthly inflation, oil price, annual GDP growth, consumption restriction, and the balance of trade with respect to GDP (Fischer, 1993;Uquillas, 2018). Among the financial system variables considered were financial spread, IDEAC (Conjunctural Economic Activity Index in English)/credit, GDP/credit, funding, leveraging, liquidity, GDP/fundraising, capital and reserves/loan volume, and portfolio delinquency (Ayala, 1999;Páez, 2014;Arias, 2015).…”