Detection of trends in observed river floods in Poland

Venegas‐Cordero, Nelson; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Jamro, Shoaib; Piniewski, Mikołaj

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101098

Cited by 13 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Both overestimation and underestimation of probable flood events is misleading, because in the first case it may result in excessive construction and maintenance costs of flood protection infrastructure, and in the second in the failure of flood protection infrastructure [84]. Such situations will also appear more and more frequently due to climate change, because it may both lead to increases or decreases in European river floods [16], also in Poland, where statistically significant trends in the observed river floods have been identified [19].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For last 150 years in Europe, there has been an increase in the area inundated by floods; however, this has been accompanied by a relative (to the demographic and economic growth) reduction in fatalities and economic losses [8]. There is evidence that climate change will make extreme hydrological events in Europe more frequent and adverse [9][10][11][12][13][14], although these changes will not occur in a similar way in every region [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. In general, global warming is going to significantly increase human and economic losses from river flooding in the future [23][24][25][26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Flood-Triggering Rainfall and Potential Losses—The Copula-Based Approach on the Example of the Upper Nysa Kłodzka River

Perz

Wrzesiński

Budner

et al. 2023

Water

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Floods are natural phenomena, inextricably related to river regimes, which can threaten human health and life, the environment, cultural heritage, economic activity and infrastructure. The aim of the research is to assess the connection between rainfall and river flood risk. The proposed methodology is presented on the example of the upper Nysa Kłodzka River (NKR) catchment and Kłodzko town located on NKR, which are two of the most flood-prone areas in the Odra River basin. The methodology is based on the well-established methods of potential flood losses (PFL) estimation and the copula-based model, allowing an assessment of connections between rainfall and flood losses in a probabilistic way. The results are presented using the ‘synchronicity’ measure. Seventeen significant summer (rainfall-driven) flood waves were selected, for which PFL were estimated and cumulative rainfall was calculated for 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h preceding the flood peak. It was found that the synchronicity of PFL and the 24 h rainfall was the lowest among the analyzed variants, while for the 48 to 120 h rainfall the highest synchronicity was identified at precipitation gauge Podzamek.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood-Triggering Rainfall and Potential Losses—The Copula-Based Approach on the Example of the Upper Nysa Kłodzka River

Perz

Wrzesiński

Budner

et al. 2023

Water

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“…Moreover, the snow water equivalent also decreased over the period 1967-2020, with the snow cover stability not yet significantly disturbed (Wibig, Jędruszkiewicz 2023). The shortening of thermal winters (Czernecki, Miętus 2017) affected the streamflow magnitude and timing (Venegas-Cordero et al 2022. Temporal changes in selected streamflow characteristics have been examined based on the seasonality and circular statistics (Jokiel, Stanisławczyk 2016;Piniewski et al 2018;Wrzesiński, Sobkowiak 2018;2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earlier emergence of winter-spring maximum streamflow across Poland, 1981–2020

2024

AGL

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Rivers in Poland present nival, nivo-pluvial and pluvio-nival water regimes with considerable peak flows occurring at the winter-spring turn in March, April or May. As climate warming occurs, the snow fraction of precipitation may change, and the atmospheric thaws might occur earlier, causing changes in the streamflow patterns. In this study, the date of the maximum streamflow occurrence at the winter-spring turn was analyzed during the period from 1981-2020 to detect possible changes in the river regime. Daily streamflow data from 102 river gauging stations across Poland were filtered with the moving average shifting horizon (MASH) method to filter out the short-term variability observed at daily and inter-annual scales. Then, the modified Mann-Kendall statistical test and the Theil-Sen slope were employed to assess the trend presence and magnitude of the observed date of the peak flow occurrence. A clear shift in the timing of the springtime maximum streamflow towards earlier in the year was revealed in many rivers across the country. An acceleration of the streamflow maximum was observed in 87 out of 102 analyzed rivers, ranging from -8 to -108 days. A 9-day delay was detected at one mountainous site. The other 14 rivers did not show a statistically significant shift.

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“…Freshwater availability is the second most responsive environmental variable to climate change after air temperaturę [7], [1], [8], [9], [10]. The timeliness of temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation and temperature, despite the many papers that have been written and analyses performed [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16], [17], [18] especially in recent decades is increasing due to the documentation of theses of the impact of human activities on regional climatic factors [19], [20], [21]. Computational capabilities and complex analyses performed on long series of measurements are attracting interest [22], [8], [23] also as a result of the search for justification of theses of polarization of extreme phenomena [24], [1], [25], [26], [27], [28], [29], [30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Polarization of Climate Phenomena Based on Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Sequences

Twaróg¹

2023

Preprint

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The article presents an analysis of monthly precipitation totals based on the GPCC database, and monthly mean temperatures (NOAA data) for 377 catchments distributed across the globe. The analysis included 110-year data sequences from 1901 to 2010 calculated from grid data with a spatial resolution of 0.5°x 0.5° longitude and latitude. Long-term sequences of precipitation and temperature were used to assess the polarization of climatic phenomena. The noticeable impact of polarization in the area of extreme changes in temperature and precipitation is related to anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation and pollution, which affect ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, water resources and economies. The paper demonstrates the existence of trends related to the polarization of temperature and precipitation phenomena. The measures of polarization used in science are discussed. A simple measure of polarization was proposed and applied to both long-term sequences of monthly precipitation totals and monthly mean temperature. Due to the nature of the proposed polarization measure, other characteristics of the precipitation and temperature sequences are also presented as background for the discussion of the polarization index. The paper presents, for a selection of several hundred catchments from around the world, analyses of the assessment of precipitation and temperature trends using non-parametric tests. The trend analyses use Mann -Kendall tests at the 5% significance level. A Pettitt test was used to determine the trend change point for precipitation and temperature data. The whole is supported by rich graphical analyses and the results are presented tabularly.

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Detection of trends in observed river floods in Poland

Cited by 13 publications

References 67 publications

Flood-Triggering Rainfall and Potential Losses—The Copula-Based Approach on the Example of the Upper Nysa Kłodzka River

Flood-Triggering Rainfall and Potential Losses—The Copula-Based Approach on the Example of the Upper Nysa Kłodzka River

Earlier emergence of winter-spring maximum streamflow across Poland, 1981–2020

Assessing the Polarization of Climate Phenomena Based on Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Sequences

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