Detection of statistically significant trends in the summer precipitation of mainland Spain

Mosmann, V; Castro, Amaya; Fraile, Roberto; Dessens, Jean; Sánchez, José Luis

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2003.11.002

Cited by 131 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Finally, it is important to highlight the positive tendencies of May, July and August. These results are in accordance with those revealed by Mossmann et al (2004). Increases of rainfall in these months could be important for the vegetation during the dry season.…”

Section: A Rainfall Trend Analysissupporting

confidence: 82%

Recent climatic trends in Castilla and León (Spain) and its possible influence on the potential natural vegetation

Río

Herrero

Penas

2009

Acta Botanica Gallica

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Abstract.-Precipitation and mean temperature trends at monthly, seasonal and annual time scale for Castilla and León during the period 1961-2004 were analysed in the present study. The main aims of this paper were to find out if these tendencies differ from those pointed out for this region in a previous research for the period 1961-1997 and to establish, based on bioclimatic models, possible changes on the potential natural vegetation of this territory if these trends do not change in future. Magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of the regression lines while the statistical significance was determined by the Mann-Kendall test. Magnitude and sign of rainfall and temperature trends over the last four decades have been essentially the same than those concerning to the period 1961-1997. It can be concluded that if these trends keep in future areas with temperate climate could increase in this region. In this situation, deciduous forests could extend their distribution limits, thus replacing some semi-deciduous and evergreen ones.Key words : bioclimatology -Castilla and León -climatic trends -potential natural vegetation -Spain.Résumé.-On examine ici les tendances de précipitation et température moyenne mensuelle, saisonnière et annuelle pour la plus grande région de l`Espagne (Castilla et León) pendant la période 1961-2004. Le première objectif était découvrir si ces tendances ont été différentes de celles précisées pour cette région dans une recherche précédente pour la période 1961-1997 et en même temps d'établir, en fonction des modèles bioclimatiques, les changements possibles sur la végétation potentielle de ce territoire. L'intensité de cette tendance a été déduite des pentes de lignes de régression par l´utilisation de la méthode des moindres carrés et la signification statistique a été aussi déterminée par le test non paramétrique Mann-Kendall. Le sens des tendances de précipitations au cours des quarante-quatre dernières années est le même que celui de la période 1961-1997. En conclusion, si ces tendances continuent dans le futur, les secteurs de climat tempéré pourraient augmenter dans cette région. En consé-quence, les forêts à feuilles caduques pourront accroître leur aire en remplaçant un certain nombre de forêts à feuilles semi-caduques et persistantes.

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Section: A Rainfall Trend Analysissupporting

confidence: 82%

Recent climatic trends in Castilla and León (Spain) and its possible influence on the potential natural vegetation

Río

Herrero

Penas

2009

Acta Botanica Gallica

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“…Thus, along the Mediterranean coast, during 1964-1990, Romero et al (1998 found a global decrease in winter precipitation in 410 observatories, but González-Hidalgo et al (2006) reported a significant positive trend between 1951 and 2000 in the same area. A decrease in autumn precipitation was reported in the Gulf of Valencia (on the east coast) between 1961and 1990(González-Hidalgo et al, 2001 and an increase in summer precipitation (mainly inland) was observed during 1961-1990 by Mosmann et al (2004) using 333 observatories.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal precipitation trends in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula in second half of 20th century

Luis¹,

Gonzalez‐Hidalgo²,

Longares³

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

119

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This is a study of the changes in annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and variability, during the period 1951-2000, using MOPREDA MES . This dataset includes 1113 complete and homogeneous monthly precipitation time series from the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula (IP), and corresponds to the five official Spanish hydrological divisions which drain into the Mediterranean Sea. The time series of annual and seasonal precipitation were used to test for trends. The absolute value of the anomaly time series was also tested for trends to identify changes in interannual variability of precipitation. The significance of these changes was assessed using the non-parametric Spearman rank test. The intensities of observed changes, both on mean values and variability, were estimated by using linear regression techniques. Finally, we analysed the area affected by different trends by using raster maps and spatial statistics, in addition to calculating the global balances for the five hydrological divisions. We detected high variability in precipitation regimes and conditions in the study area; nevertheless, a decrease in seasonal and annual precipitation has predominated in the east of the IP during the second half of the 20th century. On an annual scale, precipitation has diminished over 90.1% of the study area. Additionally, a high percentage of the territory was affected by diminishing precipitation at a seasonal level: 85% (of territory) in summer, 82% in spring, 64% during winter and 61% in autumn. Taking the study area as a whole, seasonal precipitation decreases are ranked as follows: summer (−22.5%), spring (−19.3%), winter (−7.3%), and autumn (−5.2%), with a decrease in the value of the global mean annual precipitation −12.4%. We also detected an increase of precipitation variability in winter (+23.5%) and summer (+11.4%), and a decrease in autumn and spring (−14.9 and −16.8%, respectively) with a global mean value of +7.8%.

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“…This rainfall increase has been related to increases in convective processes resulting from global warming (Mosmann et al, 2004). Convective processes alone, however, cannot be generalized.…”

Section: Monthly Precipitation Trends On the Eastern Iberian Peninsulamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Analyses for the second-half of the twentieth century, mainly , do not show any clear signal, either, and reflect high variability at both temporal and spatial resolution in some cases (Mosmann et al, 2004;Rodrigo and Trigo, 2007). Finally, subregional analyses usually involve a high spatial density of observation points but do not detect any global spatial pattern of trends throughout the whole Mediterranean coast (Romero et al, 1998;Guijarro, 2002), the North-East and Catalonia (Lana and Burgueño, 2000;Saladié et al, 2002Saladié et al, , 2004, the northern inland plateau (Labajo and Piorno, 2001;del Río et al, 2005) or the southwestern area (García-Barrón et al, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monthly precipitation trends on the Mediterranean fringe of the Iberian Peninsula during the second‐half of the twentieth century (1951–2000)

González‐Hidalgo¹,

López-Bustins

Štěpánek

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

160

137

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ABSTRACT:We analysed monthly precipitation trends on the eastern Mediterranean fringe of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) by means of a new monthly precipitation database [Monthly Precipitation Dataset, Mediterranean Spain (MOPREDA MES )]. This database was created following an exhaustive quality control of the archives from the Meteorological Agency of Spain (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, INM), and comprises 1113 complete and homogeneous monthly precipitation series , covering 180 000 km 2 (one-third of IP area). The new data set currently offers the highest spatial density of stations on the IP and around the Mediterranean Sea (1 station/150-200 km 2 ), and includes available information at 1500 m asl.The analyses of monthly precipitation trends indicate high spatial and temporal variability. No global trend in the study area was found, except for March, when significant negative trends affect the whole study area. Trends for winter months (December-January-February) are dominated by an East-West gradient with a latitudinal temporal shift. Positive trends are mainly located in coastland areas and negatives ones predominate inland. April shows a North-positive South-negative gradient, and the reverse is true for June and September. Negative trends are dominant in October over most of the study area, except for the Pyrenees area. July and August show the most complex spatial distribution pattern, with well-delimited areas of positive trends to the south and northwest. We generally detected no significant trends in May and November.In order to analyse the nature of rainfall variability in the study area, we also studied the synchronous influence of different low-variability modes [the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO)]. On the Mediterranean fringe of the IP precipitation is mainly related to negative phases of the three low-frequency variability patterns analysed, and the MO and the WeMO emerge as predominant teleconnection patterns. These results suggest that monthly variations in rainfall may result from the simultaneous effects of different atmospheric modes of low variability, especially those linked to the Mediterranean region.Studies making use of high-density precipitation databases, as is the case in this paper, are useful for a better understanding of precipitation behaviour in a complex area like the Mediterranean fringe of the IP. The results also provide valuable information for downscaling and hydrological management.

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Detection of statistically significant trends in the summer precipitation of mainland Spain

Cited by 131 publications

References 16 publications

Recent climatic trends in Castilla and León (Spain) and its possible influence on the potential natural vegetation

Recent climatic trends in Castilla and León (Spain) and its possible influence on the potential natural vegetation

Seasonal precipitation trends in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula in second half of 20th century

Monthly precipitation trends on the Mediterranean fringe of the Iberian Peninsula during the second‐half of the twentieth century (1951–2000)

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