Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress

Ding, Yihui; Ren, Guoyu; Zhao, Zongci; Xu, Ying; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Qiaoping; Jin, Zhangdong

doi:10.1007/s00376-007-0954-4

Cited by 333 publications

(186 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…These changes exhibit significant agreement with the simulations by regional climate models (RCM), but with more local small-scale information provided in the high-resolution RCMs [17][18][19][20][21]. These results have been well reviewed by Ding et al [22] and Wang et al [23].…”

supporting

confidence: 74%

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Chen

2013

Chin. Sci. Bull.

137

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Projection of future climate changes and their regional impact is critical for long-term planning at the national and regional levels aimed at adaptation and mitigation. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation in China and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns using the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 Phase (CMIP5) simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results consistently indicate that the annual precipitation in China is projected to significantly increase at the end of the 21st century compared to the present-day levels. The number of days and the intensity of medium rain, large rain and heavy rain are obviously increased, while the number of trace rain days is projected to decrease over the entire area of China. Further analysis indicates that the significant increase of annual precipitation in Northwest China is primarily due to the increase of light rain and the increases in North and Northeast China are primarily due to the increase of medium rain. In the region of southern China, the increases of large rain and heavy rain play an important role in the increase of annual precipitation, while light rain events play a negative role. Analysis of the changes in atmospheric circulation indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation is projected to be considerably stronger, and the local atmospheric stratification is projected to be more unstable, all of which provide a background benefit for the increase of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in China under global warming scenarios. CMIP5, precipitation, extreme rainfall, atmospheric circulation, projection Citation:Chen H P. Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models. Chin Sci Bull, 2013, 58: 14621472, doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5612-2The significant warming that has been observed globally over the past century has a high probability of being due to the increase in anthropogenic factors concentrating greenhouse gases. This significant warming has produced a significant impact on human society, ecosystems, and the environment, and this warming is capable of causing thousands of deaths and heavy economic losses. By the end of the 21st century, as reported in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), human society will become much more vulnerable as the consequences of continuous global warming, with global temperature increasing by 1.1-6.4°C relative to 1980-1999 [1]. Due to these future negative impacts, governments and the public alike have begun to pay increased attention to climate change under the global warming scenario.Modern global climate models that are capable of realistically simulating many aspects of the climate are the primary tools for determining the attribution of recent warming and for developing projections of future climate change. Researchers in China have taken a great deal of effort to study future climate change based on such model simulations, and some valuable and c...

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supporting

confidence: 74%

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Chen

2013

Chin. Sci. Bull.

137

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“…Warming signals can be observed obviously in each season, and the annual mean warming rate is about 0.5°C per decade. This value is higher than that estimated by Ding et al [54], which may be due to the increased warming during last three decades in eastern China. Moreover, the large-scale warming exhibits considerable temporal-spatial variations.…”

contrasting

confidence: 71%

Urbanization and heterogeneous surface warming in eastern China

Yang

2013

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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With the homogeneity-adjusted surface air temperature (SAT) data at 312 stations in eastern China for 1979-2008 and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime light data, the spatial heterogeneities of the SAT trends on different scales are detected with a spatial filtering (i.e. moving spatial anomaly) method, and the impact of urbanization in eastern China on surface warming is analyzed. Results show that the urbanization can induce a remarkable summer warming in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) city cluster region and a winter warming in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) city cluster region. The YRD warming in summer primarily results from the significant increasing of maximum temperature, with an estimated urban warming rate at 0.132-0.250°C per decade, accounting for 36%-68% of the total regional warming. The BTH warming in winter is primarily due to the remarkable increasing of minimum temperature, with an estimated urban warming rate at 0.102-0.214°C per decade, accounting for 12%-24% of the total regional warming. The temporal-spatial differences of urban warming effect may be attributed to the variation of regional climatic background and the change of anthropogenic heat release.heterogeneous surface warming, urbanization, surface air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, eastern China Citation:Wu K, Yang X Q. Urbanization and heterogeneous surface warming in eastern China. Chin Sci Bull, 2013Bull, , 58: 13631373, doi: 10.1007 Surface warming over recent five decades is attributed to natural climate change and anthropogenic forcing. The anthropogenic forcing mainly includes the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols, as well as the land use/ cover change (LUCC) [1]. Relative to the enhanced greenhouse effect, however, the climatic effect of LUCC has not been drawn sufficient attention. The urbanization is one of the extreme processes in LUCC [2]. It can alter surface vegetation distribution, induce regional climate change and increase uncertainty in future climate projection [3]. Moreover, large-scale urbanization can affect regional surface energy and water balance [4], and thus may intensify the frequency of extreme weather/climate events. Since both GHG and urbanization tend to increase the surface air temperature (SAT), it is quite difficult to estimate the relative contribution of either effect to the surface warming [5]. A variety of methods have been adopted to detect the climatic effect of urbanization. The most conventional and direct method is the so-called urban-minus-rural (UMR) method in which the SAT at urban and rural sites is contrasted. The key of this method depends on whether or not those sites or stations can be objectively classified. In general, such a classification utilizes either population data [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] or satellite data (such as nighttime light imagery and land cover dataset) [18][19][20][21][22][23] as well as the geographic location of the stations. In addition, Empirical O...

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“…Furthermore, rising temperature has increased surface evaporation prompting more drying across NECT. The decreasing precipitation trends in this study corroborate results in northern China obtained by the linear fitted model of Ding et al (2007) and Wang and Zhou (2005). However, a report published by IPCC (2007) stated that precipitation has increased throughout the twentieth century between latitude 30 and 85°N.…”

Section: Annual and Seasonal Trends Of Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 90%

Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in the Northeast China Transect

et al. 2014

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In this study, drought trends and change magnitudes of the Northeast China Transect (NECT) were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen's slope estimator. Meteorological data from 20 meteorological stations of NECT region from 1957 to 2012 were used. Results demonstrated that five stations had significant negative trends in precipitation. The magnitudes of the significant negative trends at the 95 % confidence level varied from -2.41 ± 1.05 mm year -1 at Tonghe station to -1.11 ± 0.51 mm year -1 at Qianguoerluosi station. Analysis of the seasonal precipitation series showed a mix of negative and positive trends. Many stations also exhibited strong contrasting seasonal trends that counterbalanced one other at the yearly level. In addition, cluster analysis based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) was applied to the standard precipitation index (SPI) series. Results revealed three different and spatially well-defined subregions (east, center and west regions of NECT). Due to the decrease in precipitation from the east to the west, land use varies from forest regions in the east, to agriculture in the center, to pastoral areas in the west. Characteristics of drought events for each representative station of different subregions are explored using temporal evolution of the SPI values. Results showed that severe or extreme droughts occurred in 2001, 2003 in Tonghe, 1980 in Tongliao and 2005 123Nat Hazards (2015) 76:601-614 DOI 10.1007/s11069-014-1507 has great potential for examining spatial coherence of regional drought, which was consistent with not only the precipitation spatial distribution but also the characteristics of land use in the study area. This study not only provides important information on drought variability in the NECT, but also provides useful information for improving water management strategies and planning agricultural practices.

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Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress

Cited by 333 publications

References 16 publications

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Urbanization and heterogeneous surface warming in eastern China

Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in the Northeast China Transect

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