Detection and verification of tropical cyclones and depressions over the South Pacific Ocean basin using<scp>ERA</scp>‐5 reanalysis dataset

Yeasmin, Alea; Chand, Savin S.; Turville, Christopher; Sultanova, Nargiz

doi:10.1002/joc.7131

Cited by 9 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Consistent with Yeasmin et al (2021, 2023), we define the South Pacific basin here as the region between 0°–30° S latitude and 140–240° E longitude. Note that we have chosen 140° E (instead of 135° E, e.g., Diamond et al, 2013) on the basis that most cyclones that form in the region west of 140° E (i.e., between 135 and 140° E) track westward, and hence have little influence on the southwest Pacific region.…”

Section: Data Definitions and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…Our two preceding papers (Yeasmin et al, 2021, 2023) provide details of TC and TD reconstruction and validation methodology in reanalyses datasets. Here, we give an overview of the method used to derive TCs and TDs from 20CR and the suitability of such long‐term reconstructions for natural variability and trend analyses.…”

Section: Data Definitions and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 20CR can also capture signatures of some historical TC events relatively well (e.g., Emanuel, 2010; Truchelut et al, 2013; Truchelut & Hart, 2011), and so is considered an important source of information for objectively studying long‐term TC and TD characteristics for the South Pacific Ocean basin where, otherwise, historical records are scant. In Yeasmin et al (2021), we developed a novel methodology to detect and track TDs in reanalyses products. The methodology was then applied to the 20CR dataset to reconstruct long‐term TD records for the South Pacific.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical cyclones and depressions over the South Pacific Ocean since the late 19th century: Assessing synergistic relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Yeasmin

Chand

Sultanova

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) and tropical depressions (TDs), hereafter collectively referred to as tropical storms, often exhibit large year‐to‐year variability in the South Pacific Ocean basin. Many past studies have examined this variability in relation to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, particularly using observational data from the post‐satellite era (i.e., after the 1970s when TC observations became more consistent). However, less emphasis is placed on how tropical storms are modulated at interdecadal and decadal time scales such as due to Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This is because post‐satellite data are available for relatively short time period (i.e., post‐1970s), limiting our understanding of the IPO–TC relationship in the South Pacific. Here, using NOAA‐CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, we reconstruct historical records (1871–2014) of TC and depression proxies for the South Pacific Ocean basin, and then utilize these reconstructed proxies to first understand the connections between TC–ENSO and TC–IPO over the 20th century, and then investigate the combined effects of ENSO–IPO effects on TCs and depressions. Results show that La Niña (El Niño) is more dominant on TC activity than El Niño (La Niña) over the western subregion 140–170° E (eastern sub‐region, 170–220° E) as expected. We also show that TC numbers are strongly modulated by the IPO phenomenon with, on average, more TCs occurring during the positive phase than during the negative phase of the IPO in both western and eastern sub‐regions. We show for the first time (using a long‐term reconstructed TC dataset) that the combined phases of El Niño and + IPO account for increased TC activity, as opposed to the combined phase of La Niña and −IPO, in the eastern sub‐region. Similarly, the combined phase of La Niña and + IPO, as opposed to the combined phase of El Niño and −IPO, account for increased TC activity in the western sub‐region. However, unlike TCs, the patterns of ENSO variability seem to be reversed for TDs. Changes in large‐scale environmental conditions, such as environmental vertical wind shear, low‐level cyclonic relative vorticity, mid‐tropospheric relative humidity and sea surface temperature are linked to the various modes of variability patterns and their synergistic relationships.

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Section: Data Definitions and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 72%

Section: Data Definitions and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical cyclones and depressions over the South Pacific Ocean since the late 19th century: Assessing synergistic relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Yeasmin

Chand

Sultanova

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

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“…Further, system intensity, temporal coherence, and structure are likely to differ among different reanalysis products (Hodges et al ., 2003). Nevertheless, in light of several improvements, ERA‐5 can be used for the present goals (Mahto & Mishra, 2019; Nogueira, 2020; Bian et al ., 2021; Yeasmin et al ., 2021). It is important to note that, as a precaution, we use the reanalysis in conjunction with satellite‐based products for robustness and to avoid false detection of rain‐bearing systems.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Classification of mid‐tropopsheric cyclones over the Arabian Sea and western India

Kushwaha

Sukhatme

Nanjundiah

2023

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The formation of mid‐tropospheric cyclones (MTCs), responsible for a large portion of annual precipitation and extreme rainfall events over western India, is studied using an unsupervised machine learning algorithm and cyclone tracking. Both approaches reveal four dominant weather patterns that lead to the genesis of these synoptic systems. Specifically, re‐intensification of westward‐moving synoptic systems from the Bay of Bengal (type 1, 51%), in‐situ formation with a coexisting cyclonic system over the Bay of Bengal that precedes (type 2a, 31%) or follows (type 2b, 10%) genesis in the Arabian Sea, and finally in‐situ genesis within a northwestward‐propagating cyclonic anomaly from the south Bay of Bengal (type 2c, 8%). Thus, a large fraction of this region's rainy middle tropospheric synoptic systems form in association with cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal. The four variants identified also show a marked dependence on large‐scale environmental features. In particular, type 1 and type 2a MTC formation primarily occurs in phases 4 and 5, and type 2b and type 2c MTCs form mainly in phases 3 and 4 of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. Further, though in‐situ formation with a Bay of Bengal cyclonic anomaly (types 2a and 2b) mostly occurs in June, downstream development is more likely in the core of the monsoon season. Out of all categories, type 2a is associated with the highest composite rain rate (60 mm·$$ \cdotp $$day prefix−1$$ {}^{-1} $$) over western India and points towards the dynamic interaction between a low‐pressure system over the Bay of Bengal and the development of MTCs over western India and the northeast Arabian Sea. This classification, identification of precursors, connection with cyclonic activity over the Bay of Bengal, and dependence on a large‐scale environment provide an avenue for a better understanding of rain‐bearing MTCs over western India.

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“…Further, the intensity of systems, their temporal coherence, and structure is likely to differ among different reanalysis products (Hodges et al, 2003). Nevertheless, in light of several improvements, we believe that ERA-5, the highest resolution reanalysis, can be used for the present goals (Mahto and Mishra, 2019;Nogueira, 2020;Yeasmin et al, 2021;Bian et al, 2021). It is important to note that, as a precaution, we use the reanalysis in conjunction with satellite-based products for robustness and to avoid false detection of rain-bearing systems.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Classification of Middle Tropospheric Systems over the Arabian Sea and Western India

Kushwaha¹,

Sukhatme²,

Nanjundiah³

2022

Preprint

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The formation of Middle Tropospheric Cyclones (MTCs) that are responsible for a large portion of annual precipitation and extreme rainfall events over western India is studied using an unsupervised machine learning algorithm and cyclone tracking. Both approaches reveal four dominant weather patterns that lead to the genesis of these systems; specifically, re-intensification of westward moving synoptic systems from Bay of Bengal (Type 1, 51%), in-situ formation with a coexisting cyclonic system over the Bay of Bengal that precedes (Type 2a, 31%) or follows (Type 2b, 10%) genesis in the Arabian Sea, and finally in-situ genesis within a northwestward propagating cyclonic anomaly from the south Bay of Bengal (Type 2c, 8%). Thus, a large fraction of rainy middle tropospheric synoptic systems in this region form in association with cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal. The four variants identified also show a marked dependence on large-scale environmental features with Type 1 and Type 2a formation primarily occurring in phases 4 and 5, and Type 2b and Type 2c in phases 3 and 4 of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation. Further, while insitu formation with a Bay of Bengal cyclonic anomaly (Type 2a and 2b) mostly occurs in June, downstream development is more likely in the core of the monsoon season. Out of all categories, Type 2a is associated with the highest rain rate (60 mm/day) and points towards the dynamical interaction between a low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal and the development of MTCs over western India and the northeast Arabian Sea. This classification, identification of precursors, connection with cyclonic activity over the Bay of Bengal and dependence on large-scale environment provides an avenue for better understanding and prediction of rain-bearing MTCs over western India.

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Detection and verification of tropical cyclones and depressions over the South Pacific Ocean basin usingERA‐5 reanalysis dataset

Cited by 9 publications

References 37 publications

Tropical cyclones and depressions over the South Pacific Ocean since the late 19th century: Assessing synergistic relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Tropical cyclones and depressions over the South Pacific Ocean since the late 19th century: Assessing synergistic relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Classification of mid‐tropopsheric cyclones over the Arabian Sea and western India

Classification of Middle Tropospheric Systems over the Arabian Sea and Western India

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