Detection and attribution analysis of annual mean temperature changes in China

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Shi, Ying; Zhou, Botao

doi:10.3354/cr01283

Cited by 38 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 36 publications

(37 reference statements)

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“…Under the background of global warming possibly caused by anthropogenic activities (e.g., greenhouse gases emissions; IPCC, 2014;Xu, Gao, Shi, & Zhou, 2015), annual and seasonal TAVE basically respond to significant increases at national and grid scales in our study. Notably, there are evident differences in warming rates across China, which are closely associated with the regional characteristics of the land surface's energy balance (Dong, Xi, & Minnis, 2006;Stanhill & Ahiman, 2014;Wild, Grieser, & Schär, 2008;Wild, Ohmura, & Makowski, 2007), especially for the longwave radiation budget.…”

Section: Causes For Trends In Meteorological Factorsmentioning

confidence: 54%

Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation

Chai

Sun

Chen

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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This study investigates reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends in China from 1960 to 2012 based on the Penman–Monteith equation and gridded meteorological measurements. Under the combined impacts of factors influencing ET0 (i.e., net radiation [RN], mean temperature [TAVE], vapour pressure deficit [VPD], and wind speed [WND]), both seasonal and annual ET0 for the whole China and more than half of the grids decreased over the past 53 years. The attribution analyses suggest that for the whole China, the WND is responsible for annual and seasonal ET0 decreases (excluding summer, where RN is responsible). Across China, the annual cause of WND with the largest spatial extent (43.1% of grids) mainly derives from north of the Changjiang River Basin (CJRB), whereas VPD (RN) as a cause is dispersedly distributed (within and to the south of the CJRB). In summer, RN is dominant in more than half of the grids, but the dominance of VPD and WND accounts for approximately 90% of grids during the remaining seasons. Finally, the correlation coefficients between ET0 and the Atlantic Oscillation (AO), North AO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices with different lead times are calculated. For the whole China, annual and seasonal ET0 always significantly correlate with these indices (excluding the IOD) but with varied lead times. Additionally, near half of the grids show significant and maximum (i.e., the largest one between ET0 and a certain index with a lead time of 0–3 seasons) correlation coefficients of ET0 with PDO in spring and summer, ENSO in autumn, and AO in winter. This study is not only significant for understanding ET0 changes, but it also provides preliminary and fundamental reference information for ET0 prediction.

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Section: Causes For Trends In Meteorological Factorsmentioning

confidence: 54%

Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation

Chai

Sun

Chen

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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“…To reduce the uncertainties associated with a single model, a number of studies have used the multi-model results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor, Stouffer, and Meehl 2012) to examine regional climate change by aerosols in East Asia (Salzmann, Weser, and Cherian 2014;Song, Zhou, and Qian 2014;Li, Zhao, and Ying 2015;Wang, Xie, and Liu 2015;Xu et al 2015;Zhao, Li, and Zuo 2016). Song, Zhou, and Qian (2014) used 17 CMIP5 models to examine the responses of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to natural and anthropogenic forcing.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of aerosol effective radiative forcing and surface air temperature response over eastern China in CMIP5 models

Liu

Liao

2017

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

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“…This method provides specific analyses of the associations between external forcings and observed climate changes. This optimal detection method has been widely used to detect and attribute temperature changes both globally [ Ribes and Terray , ] and regionally [ Zwiers et al ., ; Sun et al ., ; Xu et al ., ; Sun et al ., ]. Additionally, Min et al [] primarily used the fingerprint method to detect and attribute probability‐based extreme precipitation on a global scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China

Chen

Wang

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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This study aims to provide an assessment of the effects of anthropogenic (ANT) forcings and other external factors on observed increases in extreme precipitation over China from 1961 to 2005. Extreme precipitation is represented by the annual maximum 1 day precipitation (RX1D) and the annual maximum 5 day consecutive precipitation (RX5D), and these variables are investigated using observations and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The analyses mainly focus on the probability‐based index (PI), which is derived from RX1D and RX5D by fitting generalized extreme value distributions. The results indicate that the simulations that include the ANT forcings provide the best representation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation over China. We use the optimal fingerprint method to obtain the univariate and multivariate fingerprints of the responses to external forcings. The results show that only the ANT forcings are detectable at a 90% confidence level, both individually and when natural forcings are considered simultaneously. The impact of the forcing associated with greenhouse gases (GHGs) is also detectable in RX1D, but its effects cannot be separated from those of combinations of forcings that exclude the GHG forcings in the two‐signal analyses. Besides, the estimated changes of PI, extreme precipitation, and events with a 20 year return period under nonstationary climate states are potentially attributable to ANT or GHG forcings, and the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature from ANT forcings show agreement with observations.

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Detection and attribution analysis of annual mean temperature changes in China

Cited by 38 publications

References 36 publications

Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation

Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation

Assessment of aerosol effective radiative forcing and surface air temperature response over eastern China in CMIP5 models

Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China

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