Detecting time series anomalies using hybrid methods applied to Radon signals recorded in caves for possible correlation with earthquakes

Ambrosino, Fabrizio; Thinová, Lenka; Briestenský, Miloš; Šebela, Stanka; Sabbarese, C.

doi:10.1007/s40328-020-00298-1

Cited by 28 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…For these reasons, researchers have taken advantage of the use of spatial-temporal simulation models to study the effects of radioactive fallout and isotope distributions [23,24]. Moreover, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has already been used in the field of nuclear physics for forecasting the 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K concentrations in four regions of Istanbul [25], nuclear fuel cycle price estimation [26], and radon gas concentrations time-series estimation for earthquake prediction purposes [27,28]. It seems that, this model has not been used by scholars for estimating the Fukushima air dose rates.…”

Section: Jrncmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mobile simulation and ARIMA modeling for prediction of air radiation dose rates

Salh

Külahçı

Aközcan

2021

J Radioanal Nucl Chem

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A spatial simulation method in .mp4 format was proposed to determine Fukushima radioactive fallout transport and the Absorbed Dose Rate, Annual Effective Dose Equivalent, and Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk were determined for 10 months after the accident (March 11 2011). The findings of this study demonstrate that an appropriate ARIMA model can be applied for radiation dose time-series in the case of nuclear reactor accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima to predict the future air dose rates, which can provide valuable information in determining the evacuation zones, decontamination processes, and radiation protection progresses. The model forecasted results and the actual observation data in the same period shows a gradual decrease in the air dose rates during the prediction period. Moreover, there is a good agreement between them as the prediction and observation scatter plot follows each other with small variations. These results provide important insights into the predictability of ARIMA models; thus, the models were utilized to forecast the air dose rates for the period (January 2020 -October 2020).

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Section: Jrncmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mobile simulation and ARIMA modeling for prediction of air radiation dose rates

Salh

Külahçı

Aközcan

2021

J Radioanal Nucl Chem

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“…In this way, different rules to identify earthquakes relating to radon signals have been proposed by several researchers [3,8,[12][13][14][15][16]. Most of them are based on the detection of radon anomalies, defined as a positive deviation that exceeds the mean radon level by more than twice the standard deviation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Radon Measurements in Relation to Daily Seismic Activity Rates in the Vrancea Region, Romania

Galiana-Merino

Molina

Kharazian

et al. 2022

Sensors

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Many previous research studies have shown how local and even regional earthquakes can significantly affect the release of radon in the soil. The aim of this work is to investigate the relationship between radon measurements and the daily seismic activity rate and develop a methodology that allows estimating the seismic activity rate using only radon measurements. To carry out this study, the earthquake catalogue of the Vrancea region (Romania) has been used to estimate the daily seismic activity rate during a given time period, in which radon measurements were also recorded, from January 2016 to September 2020. The Vrancea zone represents the most active seismic zone in Europe and is located on the eastern edge of the strongly bent Carpathian arc. In the case of the radon measurements, seasonal behaviours and linear trends due to non-seismic factors have been identified and subsequently removed. The discrete wavelet transform has been used to analyse the radon signal at two different scales: long and short periods. From the analysis carried out on a long-period scale, an approximate linear relationship has been obtained between the radon series and the daily seismic activity rate, which provides insights into the behaviour of the seismic activity in the study region with only the radon information. In addition, the study reveals certain characteristics that could be used as precursors of earthquakes at different scales: weeks in the case of the estimated daily seismic activity rate, and days in the case of the short-period signal obtained by the wavelet analysis. The results obtained for this region allow us to hope that the analysis of the radon time series can become an effective complement to the conventional seismic analysis used in operational earthquake forecasting.

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“…Generally, radon transports with the under-building soil gas and then emanated to the surface. It can penetrate inside buildings through cracks and joints in the foundation and accumulate to high values if the ventilation is poor (Ambrosino et al, 2020). The accumulation of Rn-222 depends on various factors such as geological setting, meteorological condition, buildings characteristic (Levesque et al 1997;Schubert et al, 2018), the type, use, and upkeep of the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system in the school (Davis et al, 2020) and the inhabitant habits.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exposure Due to Indoor Radon in Bulgarian Schools

Ivanova

Chobanova²,

Kunovska³

et al. 2022

Aerosol Air Qual. Res.

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Indoor radon exposure is the largest contributor to population dose from natural sources.Radon as a natural radioactive gas could accumulate to harmful levels in buildings, such as homes and buildings with public access. In order to assess the exposure due to radon in school the results of indoor radon measurements in 55 state school buildings in 7 municipalities located in one district in southern Bulgaria are considered in this paper. The survey was carried out with passive CR-39 etched track detectors. Radon concentrations ranged from 17 to 868 Bq.m -3 , with a geometric mean of 117 Bq.m -3 and a geometric standard deviation of 1.78. The findings revealed that in 30 % of the measured buildings the radon concentration was higher than the national reference level of 300 Bq.m -3 . The statistically significant difference in indoor radon concentrations between municipalities (KW, р < 0.001) was obtained. The research was also focused on parameters affecting radon concentration levels such as type of room and floor location. The estimated annual effective dose of 0.39 to 1.07 mSv.y -1 , applying the ICRP and UNSCEAR methodology, was calculated for students.The results of the measurements were provided to the administrative authorities and measures were proposed to improve the air in school buildings with high radon levels.

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Detecting time series anomalies using hybrid methods applied to Radon signals recorded in caves for possible correlation with earthquakes

Cited by 28 publications

References 48 publications

A mobile simulation and ARIMA modeling for prediction of air radiation dose rates

A mobile simulation and ARIMA modeling for prediction of air radiation dose rates

Analysis of Radon Measurements in Relation to Daily Seismic Activity Rates in the Vrancea Region, Romania

Exposure Due to Indoor Radon in Bulgarian Schools

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