Detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data models

Wang, Hao; Du, Zhaohui; Xian-jun, Wang; Liu, Yunxia; Yuan, Zhongshang; Liu, Yanxun; Xue, Fuzhong

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2015.03.007

Cited by 58 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…In Hong Kong, temperature and precipitation were also found to play important roles based on a regression model [9]. A study in Jinan of northern China also found that average temperature and average relative humidity were positive associated with HFMD, while precipitation and sunshine hours were negatively associated [17]. In South Korea, the risk of HFMD has been shown to increase with the rise of temperature and relative humidity [20].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There have been many studies focused on the influence of various factors on HFMD [2,7,11,12,13,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24], and a number of potential risk factors were analyzed in this study. Risk factors relating to socioeconomic variables were collected, including population density, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of each county, and the proportion of primary/tertiary industry in the study area (Figure 2, Table S1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Risk Factor Analysis of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Associated with Under-Five Morbidity in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China

2017

IJERPH

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Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children under the age of five is a major public health issue in China. Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei is the largest urban agglomeration in northern China. The present study aimed to analyze the epidemiological features of HFMD, reveal spatial clusters, and detect risk factors in this region. Reports of HFMD cases in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013 were collected from 211 counties or municipal districts. First, the epidemiological features were explored, and then SaTScan analysis was carried out to detect spatial clusters of HFMD. Finally, GeoDetector and spatial paneled model were used to identify potential risk factors among the socioeconomic and meteorological variables. There were a total of 90,527 HFMD cases in the year 2013. The highest rate was in individuals aged one year, with an incidence of 24.76/103. Boys (55,168) outnumbered girls (35,359). Temporally, the incidence rose rapidly from April, peaking in June (4.08/103). Temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were positively associated with the incidence rate, while precipitation and sunshine hours had a negative association. The explanatory powers of these factors were 57%, 13%, 2%, 21% and 12%, respectively. Spatially, the highest-risk regions were located in Beijing and neighboring areas, with a relative risk (RR) value of 3.04. The proportion of primary industry was negatively associated with HFMD transmission, with an explanatory power of 32%. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, proportion of tertiary industry, and population density were positively associated with disease incidence, with explanatory powers of 22%, 17% and 15%, respectively. These findings may be helpful in the risk assessment of HFMD transmission and for implementing effective interventions to reduce the burden of this disease.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Risk Factor Analysis of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Associated with Under-Five Morbidity in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China

2017

IJERPH

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“…Many published research papers reported that climatic factors including humidity, temperature, wind speed and rainfall amount are major contributors to the distribution of HFMD [9][10][11]. Northern Thailand has three seasons; raining, hot (summer), and cold (autumn).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors associated with hand foot mouth disease among children in day care center, Chiang Rai, Thailand

Inta¹,

Apidechkul²,

Sittisarn³

et al. 2017

APJTD

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“…Several studies had illustrated the association between social-ecological factors, including temperature, rainfall, wind speed, relative humidity, and HFMD (Liao et al 2015;Liu et al 2015a;Wang et al 2015b). The impact of socialecological factors across secondary administrative unit areas is a challenging issue due to the spatial effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socio-ecological factors and hand, foot and mouth disease in dry climate regions: a Bayesian spatial approach in Gansu, China

et al. 2016

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The influence of socio-ecological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) were explored in this study using Bayesian spatial modeling and spatial patterns identified in dry regions of Gansu, China. Notified HFMD cases and socio-ecological data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, Gansu Yearbook and Gansu Meteorological Bureau. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the effects of socio-ecological factors on the HFMD and explore spatial patterns, with the consideration of its socio-ecological effects. Our non-spatial model suggests temperature (relative risk (RR) 1.15, 95 % CI 1.01-1.31), GDP per capita (RR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.01-1.39) and population density (RR 1.98, 95 % CI 1.19-3.17) to have a significant effect on HFMD transmission. However, after controlling for spatial random effects, only temperature (RR 1.25, 95 % CI 1.04-1.53) showed significant association with HFMD. The spatial model demonstrates temperature to play a major role in the transmission of HFMD in dry regions. Estimated residual variation after taking into account the socio-ecological variables indicated that high incidences of HFMD were mainly clustered in the northwest of Gansu. And, spatial structure showed a unique distribution after taking account of socio-ecological effects.

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Detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data models

Cited by 58 publications

References 25 publications

Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Risk Factor Analysis of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Associated with Under-Five Morbidity in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China

Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Risk Factor Analysis of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Associated with Under-Five Morbidity in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China

Factors associated with hand foot mouth disease among children in day care center, Chiang Rai, Thailand

Socio-ecological factors and hand, foot and mouth disease in dry climate regions: a Bayesian spatial approach in Gansu, China

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