Detecting local environmental change: the role of experience in shaping risk judgments about global warming

Marlon, Jennifer R.; Linden, Sander van der; Howe, Peter D.; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Woo, Seung Hyun; Broad, Kenneth

doi:10.1080/13669877.2018.1430051

Cited by 67 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Several recent studies point to an association between elevated temperatures [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19] or extreme weather events [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27] with greater climate change concern, belief that human-caused climate change is happening, or support for climate policies. Other studies, however, do not support such a relationship [28][29][30][31][32][33][34]. Prior beliefs and personal experience may also condition weather perceptions [35][36][37][38][39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Alternatively, some studies ask participants if they have personally experienced the effects of climate change itself [37,[57][58][59]. In some studies, survey questions about personal experience are also combined with external observational data on weather conditions or trends [15,20,32,36,38,39,46,50,60,61].…”

Section: Subjective Experience and Climate Opinionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, an index representing the ratio of previous record high temperatures to record low temperatures over several years (with more record high temperatures expected under a warming climate) is associated with estimates of county-level climate opinions in the US [12,69]. However, other studies that have focused on longer-term temperatures or trends have found little to no effect on climate opinions [28,30,32,34,70,71].…”

Section: The Effect Of Objective Temperature Experiences On Climate Omentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of studies that use objective weather data, 21 (41%) use data related to precipitation. In contrast to temperature, most studies have identified little to no association between precipitation or related variables alone and climate opinions [10,31,32,64]. For example, a very large study in the US [65] shows no relationship between median annual precipitation and climate opinion.…”

Section: The Effect Of Objective Non-temperature Experiences On Climamentioning

confidence: 99%

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How will climate change shape climate opinion?

Howe

Marlon

Mildenberger

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

170

129

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As climate change intensifies, global publics will experience more unusual weather and extreme weather events. How will individual experiences with these weather trends shape climate change beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors? In this article, we review 73 papers that have studied the relationship between climate change experiences and public opinion. Overall, we find mixed evidence that weather shapes climate opinions. Although there is some support for a weak effect of local temperature and extreme weather events on climate opinion, the heterogeneity of independent variables, dependent variables, study populations, and research designs complicate systematic comparison. To advance research on this critical topic, we suggest that future studies pay careful attention to differences between self-reported and objective weather data, causal identification, and the presence of spatial autocorrelation in weather and climate data. Refining research designs and methods in future studies will help us understand the discrepancies in results, and allow better detection of effects, which have important practical implications for climate communication. As the global population increasingly experiences weather conditions outside the range of historical experience, researchers, communicators, and policymakers need to understand how these experiences shape-and are shaped by-public opinions and behaviors.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Subjective Experience and Climate Opinionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Effect Of Objective Temperature Experiences On Climate Omentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Effect Of Objective Non-temperature Experiences On Climamentioning

confidence: 99%

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How will climate change shape climate opinion?

Howe

Marlon

Mildenberger

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

170

129

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Scholars have debated the relationship between climate change beliefs among the general public and observed historical climate and weather changes. For example, in Michigan, people's personal perceptions of climate change generally matched with historical climate and weather data , whereas others found that people's existing beliefs motivate what historical changes they believe they have observed (Myers et al 2013) or that risk perceptions are a stronger predictor of climate change belief than personal experience (Marlon et al 2018). Additionally, climate change perceptions, which are drivers of adaptation behavior and support for climate policy (Niles et al 2013, Roesch-McNally 2018 can be affected by personal experience with climate impacts (Spence et al 2011, Haden et al 2012 as well as socio-political factors (Hamilton and Stampone 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seeing is not always believing: crop loss and climate change perceptions among farm advisors

Niles

Wiener

Schattman

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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As climate change is expected to significantly affect agricultural systems globally, agricultural farm advisors have been increasingly recognized as an important resource in helping farmers address these challenges. While there have been many studies exploring the climate change belief and risk perceptions as well as behaviors of both farmers and agricultural farm advisors, there are very few studies that have explored how these perceptions relate to actual climate impacts in agriculture. Here we couple survey data from United States Department of Agriculture farm service employees (n=6, 514) with historical crop loss data across the United States to explore the relationship of actual climate-related crop losses on farm to farm advisor perceptions of climate change and future farmer needs. Using structural equation modelling we find that among farm advisors that work directly with farms on disaster and crop loss issues, there is a significant positive relationship between crop loss and perceived weather variability changes, while across all farm advisors crop loss is associated with reduced likelihood to believe in anthropogenic climate change. Further, we find that weather variability perceptions are the most consistently and highly correlated with farm advisors' perceptions about the need for farm adaptation and future farmer needs. These results suggest that seeing crop loss may not lead to climate change belief, but may drive weather variability perceptions, which in turn affect farm adaptation perceptions. This lends further evidence to the debate over terminology in climate change communication and outreach, suggesting that weather variability may be the most salient among agricultural advisors.

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The nature, significance, and influence of perceived personal experience of climate change

Reser

Bradley

2020

WIREs Climate Change

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Following a previous 2014 review of perceived personal experience of climate change, the authors review relevant research published or reported between January 2014 and mid‐year 2019. The review findings suggest that the nature, significance, and influence of perceived personal experience of natural environment changes, conditions, and events deemed to be likely consequences of global climate change have been problematically conceptualized, researched, reported, and understood by many climate change scientists and by reporters of climate change science and their audiences. The nature, psychological significance, and psychological adaptation and issue engagement influence of personal experience of perceived environmental manifestations of climate change are arguably central considerations with respect to the human dimensions of climate change. These matters encompass public understanding of climate change science, both internal and external adaptation processes, and the psychological impacts of the ongoing stressor of climate change. They also affect issue engagement and behavioral change. It is increasingly necessary that existing issues with discipline‐based assumptive worlds, constructs and measures—and often unclear research and policy questions and objectives—be identified, clarified, and addressed. This particularly matters when researchers and policy makers are addressing public risk perceptions, understandings, and responses to global climate change, ideally to inform and enhance policies directed at climate change mitigation and adaptation, or, alternatively framed, directed towards public issue engagement and ‘psychologically significant’ as well as ‘environmentally significant’ behavioral change. This article is categorized under: Perceptions, Behavior, and Communication of Climate Change > Perceptions of Climate Change

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Detecting local environmental change: the role of experience in shaping risk judgments about global warming

Cited by 67 publications

References 69 publications

How will climate change shape climate opinion?

How will climate change shape climate opinion?

Seeing is not always believing: crop loss and climate change perceptions among farm advisors

The nature, significance, and influence of perceived personal experience of climate change

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