Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones

Abstract

Owing to the limited length of observed tropical cyclone data and the effects of multidecadal internal variability, it has been a challenge to detect trends in tropical cyclone activity on a global scale. However, there is a distinct spatial pattern of the trends in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence on a global scale since 1980, with substantial decreases in the southern Indian Ocean and western North Pacific and increases in the North Atlantic and central Pacific. Here, using a suite of high-resolution dynamical model experiments, we show that the observed spatial pattern of trends is very unlikely to be explained entirely by underlying multidecadal internal variability; rather, external forcing such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic eruptions likely played an important role. This study demonstrates that a climatic change in terms of the global spatial distribution of tropical cyclones has already emerged in observations and may in part be attributable to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming

“…This change resembles the observed trend in TC density ( Fig. 1C ), and the pattern similarity is consistent with the notion that greenhouse warming may have already started to alter the observed TC tracks and frequencies ( 1 ). In the 4×CO 2 experiment, the reduction in TC density is even more pronounced, extending further into the subtropics ( Fig.…”

“…The corresponding spatial pattern shows qualitative similarities with the observed trends ( Fig. 1C ), thereby lending further support to the suggestion of already emergent observational changes ( 1 ). The simulated TC reduction in large swaths of the tropics and an extension of the “forbidden near equatorial zone” in the western tropical Pacific ( Fig.…”

Global declines in human‐driven mangrove loss

“…Economic and political emphasis on aquaculture development has led to large‐scale conversion of mangroves to shrimp and rice aquaculture ponds to take advantage of the growth in global aquaculture demand (Friess et al., 2016). Climate change and oceanic warming are expected to increase global sea levels, wave energy (Reguero, Losada, & Méndez, 2019) and the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events (EWE) such as droughts and tropical cyclones (Bhatia, Vecchi, Murakami, Underwood, & Kossin, 2018; Murakami et al., 2020), exacerbating these large‐scale losses from land‐use change (Thomas et al., 2017). Measuring the impacts of humans and natural processes on these ecosystems will be critical to the advancement of Blue Carbon science and policy (Macreadie et al., 2019).…”

The sluggard has no locusts: from persistent pest to irresistible icon

“…Recent technologies include remote monitoring tools, computational models, citizen science cell phone apps, and a fungus (Metarhizium anisopliae)-derived toxin marketed under the name Green Muscle (Enserink, 2004;van Huis et al, 2007;Cressman, 2008;Chudzik et al, 2020). The importance of these tools is expected to increase in lockstep with increasing cyclone trends in the northern Indian Ocean (Murakami et al, 2020), suggesting that desert locusts will only continue to invade the fertile fields of our imagination as they transform into a metaphor for climate change.…”