Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

Lauwaet, Dirk; Hooyberghs, Hans; Maiheu, Bino; Lefebvre, Wouter; Driesen, Guy; Looy, Stijn Van; Ridder, Koen De

doi:10.3390/cli3020391

Cited by 69 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(56 reference statements)

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“…The UrbClim model has already been successfully validated regarding its energy fluxes, 2 m air temperatures and urbanrural temperature differences for the cities of Antwerp, Ghent (Belgium) and Toulouse (France) in Lauwaet et al (2015) and De Ridder et al (2015). Also the land surface temperatures in the UrbClim land surface scheme, the main focus of the present study, have already been validated in the past with satellite data.…”

Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 90%

Assessing the current and future urban heat island of Brussels

et al. 2016

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a b s t r a c tThis study examines the urban heat island (UHI) of Brussels, for both current (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) and projected future (2060)(2061)(2062)(2063)(2064)(2065)(2066)(2067)(2068)(2069) climate conditions, by employing very high resolution (250 m) modelling experiments, using the urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim. Meteorological parameters that are related to the intensity of the UHI are identified and it is investigated how these parameters and the magnitude of the UHI evolve for two plausible trajectories for future climate conditions. UHI intensity is found to be strongly correlated to the inversion strength in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere. The results for the future scenarios indicate that the magnitude of the UHI is expected to decrease slightly due to global warming. This can be attributed to the increased incoming longwave radiation, caused by higher air temperature and humidity values. The presence of the UHI also has a significant impact on the frequency of extreme temperature events in the city area, both in present and future climates, and exacerbates the impact of climate change on the urban population as the amount of heat wave days in the city increases twice as fast as in the rural surroundings.

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Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 90%

Assessing the current and future urban heat island of Brussels

et al. 2016

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“…Often these sophisticated urban climate models simulate mainly meteorological phenomena based on temperature and/or heat budgets, such as the urban heat island effect (UHI) [11][12][13][14][15][16]. Existing urban modeling studies are able to represent and project the UHI fairly well for different case-study cities worldwide [11,12,15,[17][18][19]. Several studies have indicated that urban areas have an influence on their surroundings and their local-to-regional climate, particularly for temperature, wind, and precipitation [18,20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Areas and Urban–Rural Contrasts under Climate Change: What Does the EURO-CORDEX Ensemble Tell Us?—Investigating near Surface Humidity in Berlin and Its Surroundings

2019

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Climate change will impact urban areas. Decision makers need useful climate information to adapt adequately. This research aims to improve understanding of changes in moisture and temperature projected under climate change in Berlin compared to its surroundings. Simulations for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario from the European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) 0.11 • are analyzed, showing a difference in moisture and temperature variables between Berlin and its surroundings. The running mean over 30 years shows a divergence throughout the twenty-first century for relative humidity between Berlin and its surroundings. Under this scenario, Berlin gets drier over time. The Mann-Kendall test quantifies a robust decreasing trend in relative humidity for the multi-model ensemble throughout the twenty-first century. The Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test for relative humidity indicates a robust climate change signal in Berlin. It is drier and warmer in Berlin compared to its surroundings for all months with the largest difference existing in summer. Additionally, the change in humidity for the period 2070-2099 compared to 1971-2000 is larger in the summer months. This study presents results to better understand near surface moisture change and related variables under long-term climate change in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings using a regional climate multi-model ensemble.

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“…In contrast, bulk schemes allow very fast downscaling of ensemble climate projections (e.g. Lauwaet et al, 2015). Finally, the complexity of the explicit-canyon schemes sometimes makes a consistent incorporation into the host atmospheric model and its maintenance very challenging.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The efficient urban canopy dependency parametrization (SURY) v1.0 for atmospheric modelling: description and application with the COSMO-CLM model for a Belgian summer

et al. 2016

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Abstract. This paper presents the Semi-empirical URban canopY parametrization (SURY) v1.0, which bridges the gap between bulk urban land-surface schemes and explicit-canyon schemes. Based on detailed observational studies, modelling experiments and available parameter inventories, it offers a robust translation of urban canopy parameters – containing the three-dimensional information – into bulk parameters. As a result, it brings canopy-dependent urban physics to existing bulk urban land-surface schemes of atmospheric models. At the same time, SURY preserves a low computational cost of bulk schemes for efficient numerical weather prediction and climate modelling at the convection-permitting scales. It offers versatility and consistency for employing both urban canopy parameters from bottom-up inventories and bulk parameters from top-down estimates. SURY is tested for Belgium at 2.8 km resolution with the COSMO-CLM model (v5.0_clm6) that is extended with the bulk urban land-surface scheme TERRA_URB (v2.0). The model reproduces very well the urban heat islands observed from in situ urban-climate observations, satellite imagery and tower observations, which is in contrast to the original COSMO-CLM model without an urban land-surface scheme. As an application of SURY, the sensitivity of atmospheric modelling with the COSMO-CLM model is addressed for the urban canopy parameter ranges from the local climate zones of http://WUDAPT.org. City-scale effects are found in modelling the land-surface temperatures, air temperatures and associated urban heat islands. Recommendations are formulated for more precise urban atmospheric modelling at the convection-permitting scales. It is concluded that urban canopy parametrizations including SURY, combined with the deployment of the WUDAPT urban database platform and advancements in atmospheric modelling systems, are essential.

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Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

Cited by 69 publications

References 35 publications

Assessing the current and future urban heat island of Brussels

Assessing the current and future urban heat island of Brussels

Urban Areas and Urban–Rural Contrasts under Climate Change: What Does the EURO-CORDEX Ensemble Tell Us?—Investigating near Surface Humidity in Berlin and Its Surroundings

The efficient urban canopy dependency parametrization (SURY) v1.0 for atmospheric modelling: description and application with the COSMO-CLM model for a Belgian summer

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