Designing real terrorism futures

Hanson, Robin

doi:10.1007/s11127-006-9053-9

Cited by 35 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…2 2 It was this claim that lay behind the proposal put forward in 2005 for “terrorism futures markets,” in which participants would bet on the likelihood of terror attacks (Hanson, 2006). …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Six Refuted Doctrines*

Quiggin

2009

J of App Econs and Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Six Refuted Doctrines*

Quiggin

2009

J of App Econs and Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Prediction markets have been extensively and successfully used for the forecasting of political events, such as presidential or gubernatorial elections (Forsythe et al, 1992;Berg et al, 2008;Hanson, 2006), macroeconomic contexts (Gürkaynak & Wolfers, 2005), or forecasting sports results (Rosenbloom & Notz, 2006;Servan-Schreiber et al, 2004).…”

Section: Prediction Markets and Crowdsourcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction Markets for Crowdsourcing

Horn

Bogers

Brem³

2018

Oxford Scholarship Online

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Crowdsourcing is an increasingly important phenomenon that is fundamentally changing how companies create and capture value. There are still important questions with respect to how crowdsourcing works and can be applied in practice, especially in business practice. In this chapter, we focus on prediction markets as a mechanism and tool to tap into a crowd in the early stages of an innovation process. The act of opening up to external knowledge sources is also in line with the growing interest in open innovation. One example of a prediction market, a virtual stock market, is applied to open innovation through an online platform. We show that use of mechanisms of internal crowdsourcing with prediction markets can outperform use of external crowds.

show abstract

“…Prediction markets, such as the Iowa Electronic Markets and InTrade, have been remarkably successful in predicting such outcomes as winners of elections and Oscars. The most controversial of these markets (rejected following vitriolic response) was proposed to predict terrorist activities (Hanson, 2006). Critics, including Hillary Clinton, labeled the proposal as "incredibly stupid" and "a futures market in death."…”

Section: Statistical Groups and Prediction Marketsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distinguished Scholar Invited Essay Behavioral Decision Making

Aldag

2012

Journal of Leadership & Organizational Studies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The past few decades have witnessed greatly enhanced interest in behavioral decision theory. Unlike traditional decision theory, which is normative or prescriptive and seeks an optimal solution, behavioral decision theory (although it yields important practical implications) is inherently descriptive, seeking to understand how people actually make decisions. This article discusses rationality and its limits, approaches to examination of decision processes, and consequences of limits on rationality. Issues relating to the clinical-actuarial controversy and automatic decision making are then addressed. Two approaches to improving decision making-by use of statistical groups and prediction markets as well as by implementation of forms of paternalistic intervention-are examined. Implications for leadership and organizations are then offered.

show abstract

Designing real terrorism futures

Cited by 35 publications

References 24 publications

Six Refuted Doctrines*

Six Refuted Doctrines*

Prediction Markets for Crowdsourcing

Distinguished Scholar Invited Essay Behavioral Decision Making

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About