Design flexible renewable energy penetrated power system to address long-run and short-run interactive inference

Abstract

<p>For power systems with a high penetration of renewable energy, sufficient flexible resources such as energy storage must be combined to achieve sustainable energy development. However, in the planning of flexible resources, external societal factors can significantly change the evolution pathways of these resources. A simulation framework is urgently needed to integrate long-run development factors represented by societal influences, with the short-run operational characteristics within the physical energy framework. We provide technical support for the sustainable development of power systems, making the simulation results more accurate for future energy system planning. To address the lack of data for modeling external societal factors, a long-run modeling method based on system dynamics is proposed, alongside a short-run modeling method considering flexibility assessment and optimization. Long-run external societal factors necessitate a low-carbon system, while short-run concerns involve the actual topology of the power system to investigate high flexibility. We found that the sensitivity of various flexibility resource investments to both flexibility and low carbon in the power system is key to resolve this contradiction. An empirical calculation of the power system is conducted in the 213-bus flexibility test system including real data at 15-minute and 1-minute resolutions. Battery storage becomes the largest flexibility investment about a decade after the introduction of carbon reduction policies. While other flexibility resources particularly demand-side response due to unsaturated flexibility, also become major temporary investment assets. Considering the proposed interactive inference framework, there was a significant reduction in marginal abatement cost, and carbon trading continuously reduces the abatement cost.</p>