Desertification mapping based ARIMA model and Landsat time series

Abstract

Desertification models do not include analyses of rainfall, temporality, field visits and projection scenarios. The objective is to evaluate desertification under levels of vegetation, soil and albedo, construct forecast models and analyze its variability with time and rainfall. Landsat TM was used for NDVI, TGSI and albedo between 2000 and 2008 in dry and rainy periods in Irauçuba Centro Norte (ICN) and in the National Forest of Sobral (FLONA). Desertification levels and indices of 30 pixels were quantified and their means were inputs in the ARIMA model. The results showed vegetation and albedo at different levels of desertification. The medium desertification class of NDVI increased by 18% at ICN and the low desertification class of albedo