Descriptive epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Karnataka state, South India: Transmission dynamics of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic infections

Kumar, Narendra; Hameed, Shafeeq K Shahul; Babu, Giridhara R; Venkataswamy, Manjunatha M.; Dinesh, Prameela; Bg, Prakash; John, Daisy A; Desai, Anita; Ravi, Vasanthapuram

doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100717

Cited by 68 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…In our study, 78.95% (n = 60) participants were identified as symptomatic which is fairly opposite to the symptoms status of general population where most of the individuals (91%) reported as asymptomatic [8]. The present study found around 40% of the serum samples were negative for IgG against N-protein at the end of 4 months, whereas a similar study in USA found only 7.7% SARS-CoV-2 IgG negative after 3-6 months following symptom onset [9].…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 79%

IgG antibody response against nucleocapsid and spike protein post-SARS-CoV-2 infection

et al. 2021

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Objectives Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic became the greatest public health challenge globally. Study of dynamicity and durability of naturally developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 are of great importance from an epidemiological viewpoint. Methods In this observational cohort study, we have followed up the 76 individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) for 16 weeks (post-enrolment) to record the periodic changes in titre, concentration, clinical growth and persistence of naturally developed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We collected serum samples from these individuals for 16 weeks with a frequency of weekly and fortnightly during each follow-up and tested them in two CLIA-based platforms (Abbott Architect i1000SR and Roche Cobas e411) for testing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies both qualitatively and quantitatively. Results We recorded the antibody magnitude of these individuals 10 times between September 2020 and February 2021. We found a waning of antibodies against nucleocapsid antigen protein but not a complete disappearance by the end of 16 weeks. Out of 76 cases, 30 cases (39.47%) became seronegative in qualitative assay, although all the sera samples (100%) remained positive when tested in quantitative assay. ConclusionThe lower persistence of anti-nucleocapsid SARS-CoV-2 antibody may not be the exact phenomenon as those cases were still seropositive against spike protein and help in neutralising the virus.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 79%

IgG antibody response against nucleocapsid and spike protein post-SARS-CoV-2 infection

et al. 2021

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“…The characteristics of the selected articles are listed in Supplementary Table S3 . Among the 60 estimates of transmission heterogeneity, four (6.7%) from two studies estimated the dispersion parameter ( k ) of SARS [16] , [18] , 11 (18.3%) from eight articles estimated the k for MERS [16] , [17] , [30] , [31] , [32] , [33] , [34] , [35] , and 45 (75.0%) from 17 articles estimated the k for COVID-19 [14] , [15] , [19] , [36] , [37] , [38] , [39] , [40] , [41] , [42] , [43] , [44] , [45] , [46] , [47] , [48] , [49] . Forty estimates (66.7%) were based on transmission pair data (i.e., offspring case number generated by each index case), and four estimates were calculated using epidemic/cluster size data.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review

Wang

Chen

Guo

et al. 2021

Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal

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Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have caused substantial public health burdens and global health threats. Understanding the superspreading potential of a virus is important for characterizing transmission patterns and informing strategic decision-making in disease control. This systematic review aimed to summarize the existing evidence on superspreading features and to compare the heterogeneity in transmission within and among various coronavirus epidemics of SARS, MERS and COVID-19. Methods PubMed, Medline, and Embase databases were extensively searched for original studies on the transmission heterogeneity of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 published in English between January 1, 2003, and February 10, 2021. After screening the articles, we extracted data pertaining to the estimated dispersion parameter ( k ) which has been a commonly-used measurement for transmission heterogeneity and superspreading potential. Findings We included a total of 60 estimates of transmission heterogeneity from 26 studies on outbreaks in 22 regions. The majority (90%) of the k estimates were small, with values less than 1, indicating an over-dispersed transmission pattern. The point estimates of k for SARS and MERS ranged from 0.12 to 0.20 and from 0.06 to 2.94, respectively. Among 45 estimates of individual-level transmission heterogeneity for COVID-19 from 17 articles, 91% were derived from Asian regions. The point estimates of k for COVID-19 ranged between 0.1 and 5.0. Conclusions We detected a substantial over-dispersed transmission pattern in all three coronaviruses, while the k estimates varied by differences in study design and public health capacity. Our findings suggested that even with a reduced R value, the epidemic still has a high resurgence potential due to transmission heterogeneity.

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“…For example, in a study from Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, Laxminarayan et al showed that the infection probabilities ranged from 4.7-10.7% for low-risk and high-risk contacts (Laxminarayan et al, 2020). Kumar et al showed that both asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases transmitted the infection, with the symptomatic cases being the main driving force within Karnataka state (Kumar et al, 2021). However, the current seroprevalence-based estimates did not suffer from selection bias, as the sampling frame included the general population and went beyond reported cases and contact tracing.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The burden of active infection and anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in the general population: Results from a statewide sentinel-based population survey in Karnataka, India

Babu¹,

Sundaresan²,

Athreya³

et al. 2021

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

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Objective To estimate the burden of active infection and anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Karnataka state jointly and to assess variation across geographical regions and risk groups. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 16416 people covering three risk groups was done between 3-16 September 2020 using the state of Karnataka’s infrastructure of 290 healthcare facilities across all 30 districts. Participants were further classified into risk subgroups and were sampled using stratified sampling. All participants were subjected to simultaneous detection of SARS-CoV-2 IgG using a commercial ELISA kit, SARS-CoV-2 antigen using a rapid antigen detection test (RAT), and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for RNA detection. Maximum-likelihood estimation was used for joint estimation of the adjusted IgG, active, and total prevalence (either IgG or active or both), while multinomial regression identified predictors. Results Overall adjusted total prevalence of COVID-19 in Karnataka was 27.7% (95% CI: 26.1 to 29.3), IgG 16.8% (15.5 to 18.1) and active infection fraction 12.6% (11.5 to 13.8). Case-to-infection ratio 1:40, and infection fatality rate 0.05%. Influenza-like-symptoms or contact with COVID-19 positive patient are good predictors of active infection. RAT kits had higher sensitivity (68%) in symptomatics compared to 47% asymptomatic. Conclusion Our sentinel-based population survey is the first comprehensive survey to provide accurate estimates of the COVID-19 burden. Our findings provide a reasonable approximation of the population immunity threshold levels. Leveraging existing surveillance platforms, coupled with syndromic approach and sampling framework, renders our model replicable.

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Descriptive epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Karnataka state, South India: Transmission dynamics of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic infections

Cited by 68 publications

References 20 publications

IgG antibody response against nucleocapsid and spike protein post-SARS-CoV-2 infection

IgG antibody response against nucleocapsid and spike protein post-SARS-CoV-2 infection

Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review

The burden of active infection and anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in the general population: Results from a statewide sentinel-based population survey in Karnataka, India

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