Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

Abstract

The FMD model represents a tool for use in planning biosecurity and emergency-response programs and in comparing potential benefits of various strategies for control and eradication of FMD appropriate for specific populations.

Cost-benefit analysis of foot and mouth disease control in Ethiopia

“…Spatially explicit herd based transmission simulation models are often used to simulate the evolution of FMD under alternative control measures in disease free developed countries (Bates et al, 2003;Durand and Mahul, 2000;Keeling et al, 2001;Martínez-López et al, 2010). Such sophisticated simulation models are not available for endemic FMD countries because of a lack of spatial and structural data on livestock farms, and animal movement data.…”

A mobility model for classical swine fever in feral pig populations

“…Spatial simulation models have been developed in order to understand the time-course and changing spatial scale of an outbreak and the effect which targeted culling or vaccination may have [4,11,[20][21][22]. These models are generally focused on domestic animals, with some models capturing explicit animal movement between farms, saleyards and other locations where disease transmission may readily occur.…”

“…A challenge faced in this task is to capture the movement characteristics of the wild animal subpopulation. It is this spatio-temporal mobility which contributes substantially to long-range spread of animal diseases [4,26]. Domestic animal populations may be readily modelled using accurate records of animals located on farm premises, with some countries (e.g.…”

“…For example, most observed movements of feral pigs in tropical northern Australia appear to be seasonal and relate to food sources which vary between the wet and dry seasons. In Cairns, north Queensland the average rainfall from December to May is 1740 mm while in the dry season it is 280 mm 3 with consequential food scarcity, resulting in increased herd movement compared with the wet season 4 . Pig density in northern Australia also varies seasonally with 2 to 3.2 pigs/km 2 towards the end of the dry season and 9.5-12.3 pigs/km 2 towards the end of the wet season [5,18].…”

“…Due to the significance to disease spread of spatial heterogeneity and movement on the landscape, spatially explicit models and their attendant simulation software have been developed, such as those developed for footand-mouth disease [4,10,11,21,26,32]. These models are used to examine the effects of various containment or eradication strategies, namely culling, vaccination and movement bans.…”