Description and validation of a two-step analogue/regression downscaling method

Ribalaygua, Jaime; Torres, Luis G.; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert; Gaitán, Emma; Pino, M. Rosa

doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0836-x

Cited by 52 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Pourmokhtarian et al (2016) note the importance of the use of fine downscaling techniques. Thus, a two-step analogue statistical method (Ribalaygua et al, 2013) was used to downscale the daily climatic data, specifically the maximum and minimum air temperatures and the precipitation for each station and for each day. For both air temperature and precipitation, the procedure begins with an analogue stratification (Zorita and von Storch, 1999) in which the n days most similar to each problem day to be downscaled are selected using four different meteorological large-scale fields as predictors, specifically (1) the speed and (2) direction of the geostrophic wind at 1000 hPa, as well as (3) the speed and (4) direction of the geostrophic wind at 500 hPa.…”

Section: Climate Change Modelling and Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

Saez

Muñoz‐Mas²,

Solana‐Gutiérrez³

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Climate changes affect aquatic ecosystems by altering temperatures and precipitation patterns, and the rear edges of the distributions of cold-water species are especially sensitive to these effects. The main goal of this study was to predict in detail how changes in air temperature and precipitation will affect streamflow, the thermal habitat of a cold-water fish (the brown trout, Salmo trutta), and the synergistic relationships among these variables at the rear edge of the natural distribution of brown trout. Thirty-one sites in 14 mountain rivers and streams were studied in central Spain. Models of streamflow were built for several of these sites using M5 model trees, and a non-linear regression method was used to estimate stream temperatures. Nine global climate models simulations for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled to the local level. Significant reductions in streamflow were predicted to occur in all of the basins (max. −49 %) by the year 2099, and seasonal differences were noted between the basins. The stream temperature models showed relationships between the model parameters, geology and hydrologic responses. Temperature was sensitive to streamflow in one set of streams, and summer reductions in streamflow contributed to additional stream temperature increases (max. 3.6 • C), although the sites that are most dependent on deep aquifers will likely resist warming to a greater degree. The predicted increases in water temperatures were as high as 4.0 • C. Temperature and streamflow changes will cause a shift in the rear edge of the distribution of this species. However, geology will affect the extent of this shift. Approaches like the one used herein have proven to be useful in planning the prevention and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change by differentiating areas based on the risk level and viability of fish populations.

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Section: Climate Change Modelling and Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Every quantity was then assigned in order to the m days previously sorted by the "preliminary precipitation amount". Further details of the methodology are described in Ribalaygua et al (2013). A systematic error is obtained when comparing the simulated data from the climate models with the observed data.…”

Section: Climate Change Modelling and Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

Saez

Muñoz‐Mas²,

Solana‐Gutiérrez³

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…To our knowledge, this twostage downscaling approach, combining in turn the two popular analog and transfer function methods, has only been explored in a few previous studies. In Ribalaygua et al (2013), it was found to improve the probabilistic prediction of local surface temperature in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula. The multiple linear regression of the regression stage, estimated from the 150 most similar atmospheric analogs of the prediction day of interest, uses forward and backward stepwise selection of predictors from a set of four potential predictors (thickness of the air column and three temperature indexes of previous days).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An adaptive two-stage analog/regression model for probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation in France

Chardon

Hingray

Favre

2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Statistical downscaling models (SDMs) are often used to produce local weather scenarios from large-scale atmospheric information. SDMs include transfer functions which are based on a statistical link identified from observations between local weather and a set of large-scale predictors. As physical processes driving surface weather vary in time, the most relevant predictors and the regression link are likely to vary in time too. This is well known for precipitation for instance and the link is thus often estimated after some seasonal stratification of the data. In this study, we present a two-stage analog/regression model where the regression link is estimated from atmospheric analogs of the current prediction day. Atmospheric analogs are identified from fields of geopotential heights at 1000 and 500 hPa. For the regression stage, two generalized linear models are further used to model the probability of precipitation occurrence and the distribution of non-zero precipitation amounts, respectively. The two-stage model is evaluated for the probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation over France. It noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and amount. As the analog days vary from one prediction day to another, the atmospheric predictors selected in the regression stage and the value of the corresponding regression coefficients can vary from one prediction day to another. The model allows thus for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can also reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations.

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“…The second step for precipitation works in a different way, by using an empirical distribution function. Further details of the methodology can be found in Ribalaygua et al (2013). As a systematic error is obtained when comparing the simulated data from climate models with the observed data, which is associated to every downscaling methodology and to every climate model (which usually introduce a bias over the data), we corrected this systematic error by using a parametric quantile-quantile method (Monjo et al, 2014) on the future climate simulations.…”

Section: Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally the 19 bioclimatic variables for the present time were obtained through the "dismo" R package . A two-step analogue statistical method developed by Ribalaygua et al (2013) was used for downscaling the daily climatic data of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the precipitation from AEMET, for each station and day. The first step of the methodology, common to temperature and precipitation, is an analogue stratification (Zorita and Von Storch, 1999) in which the n days most similar to the problem day to be downscaled are selected.…”

Section: Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducción de la incertidumbre de los modelos de distribución de especies con datos ecológicos y paleoecológicos.

Amat¹

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AGRADECIMIENTOSEsta tesis doctoral ha sido financiada con una beca-contrato predoctoral de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM-RR01/2011), los proyectos de investigación CLIMIFORAD del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (RG-T1837) y DIPAVE del Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (CSO2015-65216-C2-2-P). A la UPM le agradezco también su apoyo económico durante las estancias en el extranjero.A la Universidad de Aarhus le debo el apoyo económico durante mi primera estancia en Dinamarca (Visiting Grant from Graduate School Science and Technology -Aarhus University, Denmark).A la persona a la que debo agradecer primero es Ignacio García-Amorena, por abrir la línea de investigación de modelización en el grupo "Historia y dinámica del paisaje vegetal de la Península Ibérica" y ofrecerme la posibilidad de realizar esta tesis. Nacho me inició en el mundillo de la paleobotánica en el 2007 y le agradezco especialmente su energía y dedicación para enseñarme a trabajar en el entorno científico. Además le quiero agradecer su paciencia y apoyo continuo. Otra pata importante de esta tesis ha sido el equipo de la Unidad Docente de Botánica y del grupo de investigación "Historia y Dinámica del Paisaje Natural de la Península Ibérica". A ellos les agradezco profundamente su apoyo moral, además del económico, que fue imprescindible para la asistencia a congresos nacionales e internacionales. Cada miembro del grupo (Nacho, Fernando, Carlos, Juanma, Felipe, Paloma, Merce, Mar y Jose), a su manera, me ha transmitido y ayudado enormemente, especialmente el equipazo de becarios con los que me solapé durante un tiempo, el llamado gallinero (Juanma, Salvia, César y Laura).A mis coautores (Rubén, Diego, Naia, Jens, Juanma, César, Blas y Nacho) por su inestimable ayuda, orientación y dedicación a los manuscritos. Asimismo quisiera agradecer a los editores y los revisores anónimos por sus comentarios y sugerencias que sin duda ayudaron a mejorar los artículos.Gracias también a los autores que me facilitaron los datos de porcentajes polínicos de sus yacimientos y me permitieron obtener los resultados del tercer capítulo con mayor precisión: A Menci por ser tan buena compañera y amiga en el proyecto CLIMIFORAD y por hacer el mapa de vegetación a partir de la imagen de satélite que ha permitido el trabajo del capítulo 5.A Iciar Alberdi por su impagable ayuda con los datos del inventario forestal en los inicios de mi investigación y por resolver siempre las dudas que me surgían por el camino.A Salvia García Álvarez por colaborar en la recopilación y homogeneización de los datos fósiles de la Península Ibérica y los buenos ratos juntas.3 A Ángela García de Arana por ayudarme con el inglés tan desprendidamente a pesar de avisarla de forma intempestiva.A Vanesa Martínez por sus consejos y su ayuda con el código de R y por revisar el borrador, y a Rob Muscarella por su asistencia para generar los modelos a través del paquete "ENMeval" del capítulo 4.A Sonia Roig por su energía contagiosa y sus ánimos en el duro final de la tesis, y a Almude...

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Description and validation of a two-step analogue/regression downscaling method

Cited by 52 publications

References 32 publications

Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

An adaptive two-stage analog/regression model for probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation in France

Reducción de la incertidumbre de los modelos de distribución de especies con datos ecológicos y paleoecológicos.

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