Derivation and validation of a prediction model for neonate unplanned rehospitalization in a tertiary center in China

Abstract

Background: To construct and externally validate a prediction model for neonate unplanned rehospitalization within 31 days of discharge.Methods: A retrospective study was performed in the Department of Neonatology of the Children's Hospital of Fudan University. A binominal regression method was applied to construct and validate the prediction model. Analysis was performed on a total of 11,116 neonates with an index admission between 11/1/2016 and 12/31/2018. Neonates admitted from 11/1/2016 to 1/31/2018 were used for the selection of prognostic variables and construction of the model. Model validation was then performed with neonates admitted from 2/1/2018 to 12/31/2018. Results:The rehospitalization rate for neonates was 3.27% (373/11,116). A total of 512 neonates were enrolled for the construction of the prediction model. Gestational age (GA), NICU length of stay (LOS), nonmedical order discharge and younger maternal age were strongly correlated with rehospitalization.By incorporating these 4 strong risk factors, we constructed a model to predict neonate unplanned rehospitalization within 31 days of discharge. The formula was turned into a nomogram for use in clinical practice. The nomogram has a total score of 180, with a predicted risk from 0 to 100%. Neonates are at high risk for rehospitalization if they have a total score greater than 39 points, according to the cutoff point established by the Youden index. The model was shown to have good discriminatory ability, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.68 and 0.65 in the model construction and validation datasets, respectively. A total of 39 points is the cutoff for follow-up. Conclusions:The model is able to predict neonate unplanned rehospitalization well. A total score greater than 39 indicates that follow-up is necessary.