Derivation and Internal Validation of the Ebola Prediction Score for Risk Stratification of Patients With Suspected Ebola Virus Disease

Clinical Features of and Risk Factors for Fatal Ebola Virus Disease, Moyamba District, Sierra Leone, December 2014–February 2015

“…Most patients (61%) referred to the Moyamba ETC had negative Ebola PCR results, indicating that the WHO case definition is not sufficiently specific in identifying EVD cases and, consequently, Ebola-negative patients might be at risk for nosocomial Ebola virus transmission in ETC settings ( 31 , 32 ). A newly developed Ebola prediction score has shown promising results in risk-stratifying suspected EVD patients, but further validation is needed before this method can be put to use ( 33 ). The prediction score is based on 6 variables: contact with a sick person; presence of diarrhea, anorexia, or muscle pain; difficulty swallowing; and absence of abdominal pain.…”

“…The prediction score is based on 6 variables: contact with a sick person; presence of diarrhea, anorexia, or muscle pain; difficulty swallowing; and absence of abdominal pain. Clinical features alone are not sufficiently sensitive or specific to detect EVD cases, emphasizing the urgent need for an effective point-of-care test ( 31 , 33 ). A rapid diagnostic antigen test, which was recently tested in Sierra Leone, may become an efficient tool for excluding EVD among suspected cases in the future ( 34 ).…”

Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone1

“…The features at presentation that had the strongest association with a positive laboratory test result in this study were positive contact, conjunctivitis (similar to mixed-age cohorts [ 17 , 22 ]), and age > 2 years. Fever, anorexia, abdominal pain, and diarrhea were weaker predictors of EVD.…”

“…Although elegant clinical predictive models have been developed for mixed-age cohorts, the focus of our model is children ( 3 , 17 , 18 , 20 – 22 ). The features at presentation that had the strongest association with a positive laboratory test result in this study were positive contact, conjunctivitis (similar to mixed-age cohorts [ 17 , 22 ]), and age > 2 years.…”

Ebola virus disease and the search for a cure

“…Transmission occurs through direct contact with infected bodily fluids and may be associated with mucosal surfaces, skin breaks, and parenteral routes. Contact with patients with suspected or confirmed EVD seems to be the strongest independent predictor, based on a recent study 4 . The incubation period varies from 2-21 days, but most cases present within the first 7 days.…”