Derivation & Evaluation of Drought Threshold Level Considering Hydro-meteorological Data on South Korea

Abstract

The objective of this study is to derive and evaluate the drought threshold level based on hydro-meteorological data using historical drought events. After collecting the drought events during 1991 to 2009 year, the observed meteorological data and estimated hydrological component from LSM are used as input for the percentile analysis that is drought analysis data. The drought threshold level that precipitation and runoff of 3 month duration are less than 35%, soil moisture of 2 month duration is less than 35% and evapotranspiration of 3 month duration is more than 65% is derived using ROC analysis that are objective test method. ROC analysis with SPI (3) is performed to evaluate the applicability of threshold level in the domestic. As a result, it can be concluded that the derived drought threshold level show better performance to reflect the historical drought events than SPI (3) and it reasonably explain the spatial drought situation through the spatial analysis.

Development of Alarm Grit Ratio for Drought Forecasting and Its Application to the 2021–2023 Drought

“…가뭄 발생의 피해를 최소화하기 위해 가뭄 예경보를 진행 하고 있으며 (Bae and Son, 2012), 이를 활용하는 다양한 연구가 진행되어 왔다 (Yi and Kim, 2004;So et al, 2017;Choi et al, 2021). Yi and Kim (2004) 1의 (a-1)은 행정안전부의 현재, (a-2)는 1개월 전망의 가뭄지도를 나타낸다.…”

“…Bae et al (2013)은 가뭄심도 평가와 함께 결과의 불확실성 평가를 통한 의사결 정을 제시한 바 있다. 또한, 이원화된 위험군 분류기법을 통한 성능평가를 통해 ROC 분석(Kim and Lee, 2011)을 진행한 바 있다.…”