Depopulation and Infrastructure in U.S. Cities: Looking Toward 2100

Abstract

For cities, having a declining population usually means socio-economic and infrastructure challenges to accommodate the remaining population. Using population projections, we found that by 2100, close to half of the nearly 30,000 cities in the U.S. will face some sort of population decline, representing 12–23% of the population of these 30,000 cities and 27–44% of the populated area. The implications of this massive decline in population will bring unprecedented mobility and infrastructure challenges, possibly leading to disruptions in basic services like transit, clean water, electricity, and internet access. Simultaneously, increasing population trends in resource-intensive suburban and periurban cities will likely take away access to much needed resources in depopulating areas, further exacerbating their challenges. While immigration could play a vital role, resource distribution challenges will persist unless a paradigm shift happens away from growth-based planning alone.