Deploying wearable sensors for pandemic mitigation: A counterfactual modelling study of Canada’s second COVID-19 wave

Abstract

Wearable sensors can continuously and passively detect potential respiratory infections before or absent symptoms. However, the population-level impact of deploying these devices during pandemics is unclear. We built a compartmental model of Canada’s second COVID-19 wave and simulated wearable sensor deployment scenarios, systematically varying detection algorithm accuracy, uptake, and adherence. With current detection algorithms and 4% uptake, we observed a 16% reduction in the second wave burden of infection; however, 22% of this reduction was attributed to incorrectly quarantining uninfected device users. Improving detection specificity and offering confirmatory rapid tests each minimized unnecessary quarantines and lab-based tests. With a sufficiently low false positive rate, increasing uptake and adherence became effective strategies for scaling averted infections. We concluded that wearable sensors capable of detecting presymptomatic or asymptomatic infections have potential to help reduce the burden of infection during a pandemic; in the case of COVID-19, technology improvements or supporting measures are required to keep social and resource costs sustainable.