Dependence of generation market power on the demand/supply ratio: analysis and modeling

Visudhiphan, P.; Ilić, Marija

doi:10.1109/pesw.2000.850097

Cited by 34 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…A similar result was found by Ilic & Visudhiphan (2000) in the NEPOOL market: "Spot prices tend to vary proportionally to the ratio. However, when the ration exceeds 0.8 the proportionality is no longer valid.…”

Section: Forecasting the Probability Of A Spikesupporting

confidence: 79%

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When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices

Boogert

Dupont

2008

IEEE Trans. Power Syst.

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We use a supply-demand framework to model the hourly day-ahead spot price of electricity based on publicly available information. With the model we can forecast the level and the probability of a spike in the spot price defined as the spot price being above a certain threshold. Several European countries have recently started publishing day-ahead forecasts of the available supply. In this paper we show potential uses of such indicators and test their forecasting power in an hourly spot price model. We conclude that a forecast of the available supply can be part of a useful indicator and discuss ways to further improve the forecasts.

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Section: Forecasting the Probability Of A Spikesupporting

confidence: 79%

“…Actually, the idea seems to stem from the public policy research on market power (e.g. Visudhiphan & Ilic (2000)) and security of supply (e.g. Birnbaum (2002)).…”

Section: Review Of the Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices

Boogert

Dupont

2008

IEEE Trans. Power Syst.

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“…In economic equilibrium based modeling [6], game theory based economic models like Cournot pricing are employed to solve the equilibrium solution. In agent based modeling [7], [8], depending on the objective function of each agent and observation of current price levels, agent updates his strategy using artificial intelligence methods. The market prices are the output of individual bids.…”

Section: B Modeling Electricity Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of multi-temporal electricity markets on short- and long-term bidding

Ilić

2008

2008 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting - Conversion and Delivery of Electrical Energy in the 21st Century

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Abstract-In this paper we discuss the generator investment problem for a newly proposed energy-only market structure comprising both spot and forward sub-markets as an alternative long-term resource adequacy solution. The investment problem is modeled as stochastic dynamic programming problem for a profit maximizing generator over a long time horizon. The longterm growth and short-term deviation of demand are represented as stochastic processes. The spot market is modeled as bilevel non-cooperative game and the forward market is formulated based on mean-variance criteria and market equilibrium arguments. The interrelated dynamics of different markets and its effect on investment decision and profitability of market participants are analyzed and comparisons with other market structures such as spot only energy markets are investigated as well.Index Terms-Forward markets for electricity, stochastic dynamic programming, resource adequacy, optimal investments, market design.

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“…From day to day observations, it was apparent that the high prices in the PPA tend to coincide with a tightness in the load resource balance. A similar index, the ratio of loads and resources, has been used in an analysis of the onset of market power [8]. While load data were readily available on an hourly basis from the PPA, the hourly outage history was not and a proxy had to be derived to produce an estimate of the monthly reserves.…”

Section: Price Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the transition from cost-based to bid-based pricing in a deregulated electricity-market

Druce

2007

Applied Energy

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Dependence of generation market power on the demand/supply ratio: analysis and modeling

Cited by 34 publications

References 8 publications

When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices

When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices

The effects of multi-temporal electricity markets on short- and long-term bidding

Modelling the transition from cost-based to bid-based pricing in a deregulated electricity-market

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