Dengue Transmission Mapping with Weather-Based Predictive Model in Three Southernmost Provinces of Thailand

Abstract

This study aimed to show maps and analyses that display dengue cases and weather-related factors on dengue transmission in the three southernmost provinces of Thailand, namely Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat provinces. Data on the number of dengue cases and weather variables including rainfall, rainy day, mean temperature, min temperature, max temperature, relative humidity, and air pressure for the period from January 2015 to December 2019 were obtained from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health and the Meteorological Department of Southern Thailand, respectively. Spearman rank correlation test was performed at lags from zero to two months and the predictive modeling used time series Poisson regression analysis. The distribution of dengue cases showed that in Pattani and Yala provinces the most dengue cases occurred in June. Narathiwat province had the most dengue cases occurring in August. The air pressure, relative humidity, rainfall, rainy day, and min temperature are the main predictors in Pattani province, while air pressure, rainy day, and max/mean temperature seem to play important roles in the number of dengue cases in Yala and Narathiwat provinces. The goodness-of-fit analyses reveal that the model fits the data reasonably well. The results provide scientific information for creating effective dengue control programs in the community, and the predictive model can support decision making in public health organizations and for management of the environmental risk area.

A Retrospective Study of Climate Change Affecting Dengue: Evidences, Challenges and Future Directions

“…Researchers have widely used temperature, humidity, and rainfall are macro climatic factors. But to bring in more explanatory variables that can explain the rise in dengue incidence rise can aid in building a better dengue surveillance system ( 32 , 55 , 60 , 61 ).…”

“…The main issue highlighted in most of the studies was the correlation between climatic factors and dengue incidence; whereas those are not the only factors that contribute to increased disease transmission of dengue, the main factor is the vector that carries the transmission ( 32 , 33 , 49 ).…”

“…As a result, the temperature has an impact on vectorial efficiency as well as the probability of an epidemic. Given the link between temperature and dengue cases, the predicted temperature change could worsen dengue transmission ( 28 , 32 ).…”

How Do Climate Variables Affect the Transmission of Dengue Infection in South and Southeast Asia: A Scoping Review

“…Annual relative humidity, mean, maximum and minimum humidity and weekly relative humidity were humidity variables used in those studies. Other climate related variables included in the studies were barometric pressure, (Sriklin, Kajornkasirat, & Puttinaovarat, 2021), average maximum wind speed (Ahmed & Siddiqui, 2014;Arsin et al, 2020), wind velocity (IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2018); Ishak & Kasman, 2018;(Harumy & Ginting, 2021;Jat & Mala, 2017;Minarti et al, 2021); Harumy & Ginting, 2021(Ishak & Kasman, 2018 annual sunshine duration (Jaya & Folmer, 2021) and dew point in a day (Sahay, 2018). Most of the climate related data were obtained from the government mereological departments of relevant countries except in 28 articles where satellite data on climate were used.…”

“…Eighteen articles which have studied the relationship between the number of rainy days and dengue cases have shown a strong significant relationship (Ali & Ma'Rufi, 2018;Anno et al, 2014) (Chandran & Azeez, 2015) ; ; (Minarti et al, 2021;S. A. Rahman et al, 2018;Rusli & Yushananta, 2020) (Ummi Khairunisa & Wahyuningsih, 2018;Nair & Aravind, 2020; K. M. Rahman et al, 2020;Sriklin et al, 2021;Sripugdee et al, 2010).…”