Dengue modeling in rural Cambodia: statistical performance versus epidemiological relevance

Champagne, Clara; Rácz, Paul; Ly, Sowath; Duong, Veasna; Leang, Rithea; Cazelles, Bernard

doi:10.1101/208876

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…The authors in [20] studied the dynamics of dengue fever and their coinfection with Zika, where the vaccination effect is shown for the dengue fever. The authors in [21] studied the dengue dynamics in rural Cambodia. A two-strain Tuberculosis model and the dengue virus are proposed in [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dengue infection modeling and its optimal control analysis in East Java, Indonesia

Khan

Fatmawati

2021

Heliyon

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In this study, we present a mathematical model of dengue fever transmission with hospitalization to describe the dynamics of the infection. We estimated the basic reproduction number for the infected cases in East Java Province for the year 2018 is  0 ≈ 1.1138. The parameters of the dengue model are estimated by using the confirmed notified cases of East Java province, Indonesia for the year 2018. We formulated the model for dengue with hospitalization and present its dynamics in details. Initially, we present the basic mathematical results and then show briefly the stability results for the model. Further, we formulate an optimal control problem with control functions and obtain the optimal control characterization. The optimal control problem is solved numerically and the results comprised of controls system for different strategies. The controls such as prevention and insecticide could use the best role in the disease eradication from the community. Our results suggest that the prevention of humans from the mosquitoes and the insecticide spray on mosquitoes can significantly reduce the infection of dengue fever and may reduce further spread of infection in the community.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dengue infection modeling and its optimal control analysis in East Java, Indonesia

Khan

Fatmawati

2021

Heliyon

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“…To tackle this complex problem, the Ethiopian government introduced health extension workers , and later a volunteer women development army was formed to deliver this service at community level. However, due to their way of life and mobility , their high illiteracy rates , and drawbacks of the policy itself, pastoral communities have very limited access to antenatal and skilled delivery services .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Antenatal care and skilled delivery service utilisation in Somali pastoral communities of Eastern Ethiopia

Umer

Zinsstag

Schelling

et al. 2019

Tropical Med Int Health

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Objective To assess maternal health care service utilisation and associated factors in Somali pastoral communities of eastern Ethiopia. Methods Community‐based cross‐sectional study complemented by qualitative assessments in Adadle district, Somali region, eastern Ethiopia, among 450 women in six kebeles from August to September 2016. Logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with antenatal care use and skilled delivery care use, controlling for confounders. Results About 27% [95%CI 22.8–31.2%] of women used antenatal care, and 22.6% [95%CI 18.7–26.5%] received skilled delivery service. None of the respondents reported post‐natal care. About 43% reported that they had no knowledge of antenatal care, and 46% did not perceive delivery at a health facility as important. Pastoral lifestyle, husband’s educational status, women’s attitude towards health care service and financial support from the husband were significantly associated with antenatal care utilisation. Health professionals’ attitudes, perceptions of institutional delivery, antenatal care utilisation and information about exemptions from maternal health care fees were associated with skilled delivery service utilisation. Conclusion Improving community awareness of antenatal care, employing female health professionals and culturally adapted guidelines could improve skilled delivery utilisation. In a patriarchal society, involving male partners in all maternal health issues is essential to increase use of maternal health services and to decrease maternal mortality.

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“…To describe the dengue epidemics, taking account of the available data for Phnom Penh, we have fitted a one strain model using a SEIR model: where E is for infected but not yet infectious, β ( t ) is the transmission rate, 1/ δ is the average duration of the latent period, γ is the recovery rate and μ is the recruitment or mortality rate. The initial guess for parameter values comes from the literature [ 63 ]. In this example the observational process is a Negative-Binomial law with an over-dispersion parameter equal to 0.05 and the reporting rate ρ has been estimated using a narrow Gaussian prior.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The blue distributions are the priors and the discrete histograms are the posteriors. Prior values are adapted from [ 63 ].…”

Section: Supporting Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for non-stationarity in epidemiology by embedding time-varying parameters in stochastic models

2018

Self Cite

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The spread of disease through human populations is complex. The characteristics of disease propagation evolve with time, as a result of a multitude of environmental and anthropic factors, this non-stationarity is a key factor in this huge complexity. In the absence of appropriate external data sources, to correctly describe the disease propagation, we explore a flexible approach, based on stochastic models for the disease dynamics, and on diffusion processes for the parameter dynamics. Using such a diffusion process has the advantage of not requiring a specific mathematical function for the parameter dynamics. Coupled with particle MCMC, this approach allows us to reconstruct the time evolution of some key parameters (average transmission rate for instance). Thus, by capturing the time-varying nature of the different mechanisms involved in disease propagation, the epidemic can be described. Firstly we demonstrate the efficiency of this methodology on a toy model, where the parameters and the observation process are known. Applied then to real datasets, our methodology is able, based solely on simple stochastic models, to reconstruct complex epidemics, such as flu or dengue, over long time periods. Hence we demonstrate that time-varying parameters can improve the accuracy of model performances, and we suggest that our methodology can be used as a first step towards a better understanding of a complex epidemic, in situation where data is limited and/or uncertain.

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Dengue modeling in rural Cambodia: statistical performance versus epidemiological relevance

Cited by 4 publications

References 63 publications

Dengue infection modeling and its optimal control analysis in East Java, Indonesia

Dengue infection modeling and its optimal control analysis in East Java, Indonesia

Antenatal care and skilled delivery service utilisation in Somali pastoral communities of Eastern Ethiopia

Accounting for non-stationarity in epidemiology by embedding time-varying parameters in stochastic models

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