Dengue epidemics and human mobility

Barmak, Daniel Hernán; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, Marcelo; Solari, Hernán G.

doi:10.1103/physreve.84.011901

Cited by 53 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(92 reference statements)

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“…aegypti inside work spaces could potentially result in increased exposure, depending for example on the nature of the business or work (for example those with important human movement or transit) and subsequently allow dengue to spread more efficiently between people. Past studies have suggested the importance of human movement in dengue transmission even at local level, and our data may be a further reflection of such findings [9, 10, 17, 36]. If such a hypothesis is correct, it would suggest that control measures to eliminate vector mosquitoes inside work spaces or homes should be a primary aim to reduce dengue cases in the Regency.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 66%

The Importance of Socio-Economic Versus Environmental Risk Factors for Reported Dengue Cases in Java, Indonesia

et al. 2016

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BackgroundDengue is a major mosquito-borne viral disease and an important public health problem. Identifying which factors are important determinants in the risk of dengue infection is critical in supporting and guiding preventive measures. In South-East Asia, half of all reported fatal infections are recorded in Indonesia, yet little is known about the epidemiology of dengue in this country.Methodology/Principal findingsHospital-reported dengue cases in Banyumas regency, Central Java were examined to build Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal models assessing the influence of climatic, demographic and socio-economic factors on the risk of dengue infection. A socio-economic factor linking employment type and economic status was the most influential on the risk of dengue infection in the Regency. Other factors such as access to healthcare facilities and night-time temperature were also found to be associated with higher risk of reported dengue infection but had limited explanatory power.Conclusions/SignificanceOur data suggest that dengue infections are triggered by indoor transmission events linked to socio-economic factors (employment type, economic status). Preventive measures in this area should therefore target also specific environments such as schools and work areas to attempt and reduce dengue burden in this community. Although our analysis did not account for factors such as variations in immunity which need further investigation, this study can advise preventive measures in areas with similar patterns of reported dengue cases and environment.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 66%

The Importance of Socio-Economic Versus Environmental Risk Factors for Reported Dengue Cases in Java, Indonesia

et al. 2016

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“…The resulting model, coupled with an epidemiological dengue model, showed that the timing of virus introduction within a population could have a huge impact on the final size of the epidemics [126]. The model was further improved through the inclusion of human mobility described in terms of complex networks [127]. Massad et al also used the complex networks approach to analyze the geographical spread of dengue during the 2005 outbreak in Singapore [128].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Epidemiological Models for Dengue Transmission: A Systematic Review of Structural Approaches

et al. 2012

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Dengue is a vector-borne disease recognized as the major arbovirose with four immunologically distant dengue serotypes coexisting in many endemic areas. Several mathematical models have been developed to understand the transmission dynamics of dengue, including the role of cross-reactive antibodies for the four different dengue serotypes. We aimed to review deterministic models of dengue transmission, in order to summarize the evolution of insights for, and provided by, such models, and to identify important characteristics for future model development. We identified relevant publications using PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge, focusing on mathematical deterministic models of dengue transmission. Model assumptions were systematically extracted from each reviewed model structure, and were linked with their underlying epidemiological concepts. After defining common terms in vector-borne disease modelling, we generally categorised fourty-two published models of interest into single serotype and multiserotype models. The multi-serotype models assumed either vector-host or direct host-to-host transmission (ignoring the vector component). For each approach, we discussed the underlying structural and parameter assumptions, threshold behaviour and the projected impact of interventions. In view of the expected availability of dengue vaccines, modelling approaches will increasingly focus on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination options. For this purpose, the level of representation of the vector and host populations seems pivotal. Since vector-host transmission models would be required for projections of combined vaccination and vector control interventions, we advocate their use as most relevant to advice health policy in the future. The limited understanding of the factors which influence dengue transmission as well as limited data availability remain important concerns when applying dengue models to real-world decision problems.

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“…To capture the complex interactions required to evaluate the effectiveness of mass vaccination with tetravalent dengue vaccines, the model includes vector population seasonality [34], [43], human mobility [44], [45], population heterogeneities, and individual vectors [19]. Thus, we have a coherent framework for modeling both dengue transmission and the effects of vaccination in a complex population.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Controlling Dengue with Vaccines in Thailand

et al. 2012

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BackgroundDengue is a mosquito-borne infectious disease that constitutes a growing global threat with the habitat expansion of its vectors Aedes aegyti and A. albopictus and increasing urbanization. With no effective treatment and limited success of vector control, dengue vaccines constitute the best control measure for the foreseeable future. With four interacting dengue serotypes, the development of an effective vaccine has been a challenge. Several dengue vaccine candidates are currently being tested in clinical trials. Before the widespread introduction of a new dengue vaccine, one needs to consider how best to use limited supplies of vaccine given the complex dengue transmission dynamics and the immunological interaction among the four dengue serotypes.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe developed an individual-level (including both humans and mosquitoes), stochastic simulation model for dengue transmission and control in a semi-rural area in Thailand. We calibrated the model to dengue serotype-specific infection, illness and hospitalization data from Thailand. Our simulations show that a realistic roll-out plan, starting with young children then covering progressively older individuals in following seasons, could reduce local transmission of dengue to low levels. Simulations indicate that this strategy could avert about 7,700 uncomplicated dengue fever cases and 220 dengue hospitalizations per 100,000 people at risk over a ten-year period.Conclusions/SignificanceVaccination will have an important role in controlling dengue. According to our modeling results, children should be prioritized to receive vaccine, but adults will also need to be vaccinated if one wants to reduce community-wide dengue transmission to low levels.

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Dengue epidemics and human mobility

Cited by 53 publications

References 42 publications

The Importance of Socio-Economic Versus Environmental Risk Factors for Reported Dengue Cases in Java, Indonesia

The Importance of Socio-Economic Versus Environmental Risk Factors for Reported Dengue Cases in Java, Indonesia

Dynamic Epidemiological Models for Dengue Transmission: A Systematic Review of Structural Approaches

Controlling Dengue with Vaccines in Thailand

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