Dendrohydroclimate reconstructions of July–August runoff for two nival‐regime rivers in west central British Columbia

Starheim, Colette C. A.; Smith, Dan J.; Prowse, Terry D.

doi:10.1002/hyp.9257

Cited by 18 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Neither does our reconstruction correspond with the few (non‐hybrid) streamflow reconstructions developed in B.C. (Gedalof et al ., , Hart et al ., , Starheim et al ., ), similar records from Canada's western interior (Case and MacDonald ; Axelson et al ., ), or large‐scale historical drought episodes such as the 1929–1940 Dust Dowl, the 1946–1956 drought in the southwestern United States (Fye et al, ), or the 16 th century megadrought (Stahle et al, ). In the instrumental period, recent large‐scale droughts in the Canadian Prairie provinces (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 66%

A 477-year dendrohydrological assessment of drought severity for Tsable River, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada

Coulthard

Smith

2015

Hydrol. Process.

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Summer streamflow droughts are becoming more severe in many watersheds on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, as a result of climate warming. Small coastal basins that are the primary water source for most communities and essential to Pacific salmon populations have been particularly affected. Because the most extreme naturally occurring droughts are rarely captured within short instrumental records water managers likely underestimate, and are unprepared for, worst‐case scenario low flows. To provide a long‐term perspective on recent droughts on Vancouver Island, we developed a 477‐year long dendrohydrological reconstruction of summer streamflow for Tsable River based on a network of annual tree‐ring width data. A novel aspect of our study is the use of conifer trees that are energy limited by spring snowmelt timing. Explaining 63% of the instrumental streamflow variability, to our knowledge the reconstruction is the longest of its kind in British Columbia. We demonstrate that targeting the summer streamflow component derived from snowmelt is powerful for determining drought‐season discharge in hybrid runoff regimes, and we suggest that this approach may be applied to small watersheds in temperate environments that are not usually conducive to dendrohydrology. Our findings suggest that since 1520, 21 droughts occurred that were more extreme than recent ‘severe’ events like those in 2003 and 2009. Recent droughts are therefore not anomalous relative to the ~400‐year pre‐instrumental record and should be anticipated within water management strategies. In coming decades, worst‐case scenario natural droughts compounded by land use change and climate change could result in droughts more severe than any since 1520. The influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on instrumental and modelled Tsable River summer streamflow is likely linked to the enhanced role of snowmelt in determining summer discharge during cool phases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 66%

A 477-year dendrohydrological assessment of drought severity for Tsable River, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada

Coulthard

Smith

2015

Hydrol. Process.

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“…We verified the results of our intervention analysis against analyses similar to those previously reported [e.g., Gedalof and Smith , ; D'Arrigo and Wilson , ; Trouet and Taylor , ; Kipfmueller et al , ]. High‐frequency variability in the Starheim et al [] PNA reconstruction precluded use of intervention analysis on this time series.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 86%

“…When we did not apply intervention analysis to the Trouet and Taylor [] PNA index we found that regional fires occurred more often than expected during positive PNA index years ( P < 0.06) (Figure ). In contrast, when considering the Starheim et al [] PNA index we found that regional fires occurred more often than expected during negative PNA index years ( P < 0.06) (Figure ).…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 55%

“…We obtained two reconstructions of winter PNA: the first by Trouet and Taylor [] extending to 1725 A.D. is constructed from a model‐based selection of 12 tree ring chronologies from inland sites in the Pacific Northwest and coastal Alaska. The second reconstruction modeled by Starheim et al [] extends to 1660 A.D. and is based on multispecies tree ring chronologies from west central BC.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Understanding of preinstrumental period relationships between large‐scale climate patterns and years of widespread, synchronized fires necessarily rely upon proxy reconstructions of ocean‐atmospheric teleconnection patterns. While there are numerous tree ring‐based reconstructions of ENSO and PDO [e.g., Gedalof and Smith , ; D'Arrigo et al , ; Cook et al , ; D'Arrigo and Wilson , ; Li et al , ; and references in D'Arrigo et al , and Kipfmueller et al , ], only a limited number of tree ring‐based PNA reconstructions are available [ Trouet and Taylor , ; Starheim et al , ]. While good agreement exists between proxy reconstructions of ENSO prior to the instrumental period [ D'Arrigo et al , ], putative regime periods and phase shifts displayed by different PDO reconstructions are inconsistent [ Cook , ; Kipfmueller et al , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Interannual climate variability drives regional fires in west central British Columbia, Canada

Harvey

Smith

2017

J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.

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We investigated the influence of climate variability on forest fire occurrence at eight sites in west central British Columbia, Canada. Forty‐six local fire years affecting a single site and 16 moderate fire years affecting two or more sites were identified (1600–1900 A.D.). Existing fire history data were incorporated to identify 17 regionally synchronous fire years (fires that affected ≥3 sites). Interannual and multidecadal relationships between fire occurrence and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern were examined, in addition to the effects of additive positive phases of ENSO and PDO. We examined multiple reconstructions of ENSO, PDO, and PNA and utilized three methodological approaches to characterize climate‐fire relationships. We found that the influence of interannual climate, expressed as PDSI, increasingly synchronized the occurrence of fires when examined from local to regional scales. An association between local fires and positive antecedent moisture conditions suggests moisture‐driven fine fuel development and the proximity of some sites to grasslands likely function as key determinants of local‐scale fire activity. The relationships between regional fires and ENSO, PDO, and PNA suggest that large‐scale patterns of climate variability exert a weak and/or inconsistent influence over fire activity in west central British Columbia between 1700 and 1900 A.D. Although inconsistent among reconstructions of climate patterns, we identified a significant relationship between regional fires and large‐scale climate patterns when ENSO and PDO were both in positive phases.

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Correlation and causation in tree‐ring‐based reconstruction of paleohydrology in cold semiarid regions

Elshorbagy

Wagener

Razavi

et al. 2016

Water Resources Research

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This paper discusses ways in which the tree‐ring‐based reconstruction of paleohydrology can be better understood and better utilized to support water resource management, especially in cold semiarid regions. The relationships between tree growth as represented by tree ring chronologies (TRCs), runoff (Q), precipitation (P), and evapotranspiration (ET) are discussed and analyzed within both statistical and hydrological contexts. Data from the Oldman River Basin (OMRB), Alberta, Canada, are used to demonstrate the relevant issues. Instrumental records of Q and P data were available while actual ET was estimated using a lumped conceptual hydrological model developed in this study. Correlation analysis was conducted to explore the relationships between TRCs and each of Q, P, and ET over the entire historical record (globally) as well as locally in time within the wet and dry subperiods. Global and local correlation strengths and linear relationships appear to be substantially different. This outcome particularly affects tree‐ring‐based inferences about the hydrology of wet and dry episodes when reconstructions are made using regression models. Important findings include (i) reconstruction of paleo‐runoff may not be as credible as paleo‐precipitation and paleo‐evapotranspiration; (ii) a moving average window of P and ET larger than 1 year might be necessary for reconstruction of these variables; and (iii) the long‐term mean of reconstructed P, Q, and ET leads us to conclude that there is uncertainty about the past climate. Finally, we suggest using the topographic index to prejudge side suitability for dendrohydrological analysis.

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Dendrohydroclimate reconstructions of July–August runoff for two nival‐regime rivers in west central British Columbia

Cited by 18 publications

References 58 publications

A 477-year dendrohydrological assessment of drought severity for Tsable River, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada

A 477-year dendrohydrological assessment of drought severity for Tsable River, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada

Interannual climate variability drives regional fires in west central British Columbia, Canada

Correlation and causation in tree‐ring‐based reconstruction of paleohydrology in cold semiarid regions

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