Dendroclimatic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature for the Mayo River basin in northwestern Mexico

Martínez-Sifuentes, Aldo Rafael; Villanueva‐Díaz, José; Correa-Díaz, Arián; Estrada-Ávalos, Juan; Trucíos-Caciano, Ramón; Estrada-Arellano, Josué Raymundo; Cardoza-Martínez, Gabriel Fernando; Garza-Martínez, Miguel Ángel

doi:10.1007/s00468-021-02253-1

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…The runoff reconstruction from November to July covered 155 years, indicating severe low values during the periods of 1860 to 1880, 1940 to 1960, and 1994 to 2014 (Figure 6). These droughts occurred simultaneously in the northwest of Chihuahua [47] and Durango [37] and extended to parts of the southwestern United States of America [45,48,49]. The reconstructed series showed periods of up to seven consecutive years of drought, with runoff volumes below the recorded average.…”

Section: The Historical Reconstruction Of the Runoff In The Cumbres D...mentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Our research suggests that beyond classical ecosystem services such as timber production, carbon sequestration, or oxygen release, pine species, particularly through their annual rings, represent a proxy to study the natural variability of hydrological services such as runoff, which is a major topic in the region [23]. The integration of tree-ring series from different species to generate representative regional series has been a common practice for the development of various dendroclimatic studies in northern Mexico, sometimes even with chronologies that have a separation of more than 200 km [36,37]. In this case, P. leiophylla exhibited the highest series intercorrelation and signal-to-noise ratio (r = 0.69, SNR = 33.94, Table 1), reflecting the influence of a common limiting factor in the CMNP, even surpassing P. cembroides, which is a tree species with high dendrochronological potential in the region [38,39].…”

Section: Association With Circulatory Phenomenamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tree Rings as Proxies of Historical Runoff in a National Park in Northern Mexico: A Major Ecosystem Service Provider

Villanueva-Díaz,

Correa-Díaz,

Castruita-Esparza

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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A dendrochronological network of conifers (Pinus leiophylla, Pinus cembroides, Pinus engelmannii) was developed in the Cumbres de Majalca National Park (CMNP) in Chihuahua, Mexico, to reconstruct historical runoff patterns and examine the impact of ocean–atmosphere phenomena. The CMNP plays a vital role as a runoff source for Conchos River tributaries and groundwater recharge for Chihuahua City and nearby populations. The ring-width chronologies displayed a common signal from 1859 to 2021, with the highest association found between P. engelmannii and P. leiophylla (r = 0.65) and the lowest between P. cembroides and P. engelmannii (r = 0.55). The first principal component explained 75.7% of the variance, and among the species, P. leiophylla exhibited the highest correlation (0.624, p < 0.05) with the accumulated streamflow records from the previous November to July, allowing the construction of a bootstrapped model for runoff reconstruction. The reconstructed streamflow spanned from 1859 to 2014, with an average of 2.732 × 108 m3. Periods of low runoff occurred in 1860–1880, 1940–1960, and 1994–2014, while extreme wet years with high runoff occurred in 1865, 1884, and 1987. The interannual streamflow variability correlated significantly with ENSO indices (SOI, MEI, TRI, and sea surface temperature anomalies), particularly during the winter–spring seasons, indicating that warm phases of the ENSO increased precipitation and runoff. The analysis of return periods revealed probabilities for specific runoff volumes, enabling stakeholders to use the information to develop effective strategies for sustainable water allocation and utilization in the region.

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Section: The Historical Reconstruction Of the Runoff In The Cumbres D...mentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Association With Circulatory Phenomenamentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree Rings as Proxies of Historical Runoff in a National Park in Northern Mexico: A Major Ecosystem Service Provider

Villanueva-Díaz,

Correa-Díaz,

Castruita-Esparza

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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“…These two climate variables can reduce the yield of rainfed agricultural crops in any region of the world [3], causing damage to crops and serious economic losses [5,6]. Mexico is no exception [5], due in part to the fact that although the state of Sinaloa is considered "the breadbasket of Mexico," it has also recently registered a substantial irregularity in P. This irregularity inevitably makes the socioeconomic condition vulnerable [7,8] due to low agricultural yields [9], and according to [10], especially the observed rainfed maize yield (RMY ob ). The rainfed corn crop in Sinaloa is particularly important because the area planted with this crop currently exceeds the area planted with irrigated corn.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of Four Indices of Meteorological Drought for Rainfed Maize Yield Prediction in the State of Sinaloa, Mexico

et al. 2022

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In the state of Sinaloa, rainfall presents considerable irregularities, and the climate is mainly semiarid, which highlights the importance of studying the sensitivity of various indices of meteorological drought. The goal is to evaluate the sensitivity of four indices of meteorological drought from five weather stations in Sinaloa for the prediction of rainfed maize yield. Using DrinC software and data from the period 1982–2013, the following were calculated: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), agricultural standardized precipitation index (aSPI), reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and effective reconnaissance drought index (eRDI). The observed rainfed maize yield (RMYob) was obtained online, through free access from the database of the Agrifood and Fisheries Information Service of the government of Mexico. Sensitivities between the drought indices and RMYob were estimated using Pearson and Spearman correlations. Predictive models of rainfed maize yield (RMYpr) were calculated using multiple linear and nonlinear regressions. In the models, aSPI and eRDI with reference periods and time steps of one month (January), two months (December–January) and three months (November–January), were the most sensitive. The correlation coefficients between RMYob and RMYpr ranged from 0.423 to 0.706, all being significantly different from zero. This study provides new models for the early calculation of RMYpr. Through appropriate planning of the planting–harvesting cycle of dryland maize, substantial socioeconomic damage can be avoided in one of the most important agricultural regions of Mexico.

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Resilience of Pinus durangensis Martínez in Extreme Drought Periods: Vertical and Horizontal Response of Tree Rings

et al. 2022

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Extreme drought events reduce the productivity of forest ecosystems. One approach for estimating the effects of drought on forests is by assessing their resilience. The objective of this study was to estimate resilience rates at different heights along the tree stem of Pinus durangensis Martínez. The radial growth of 200 cross sections extracted at four heights of tree stems (0.07–0.15, 1.3, 6.3, and 11.0–12.0 m) was analyzed and subsequently transformed into ring-width indices (RWI). These indices were correlated with the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index on a six-month time scale (accumulated drought of six months in the period February–May; SPEI06FM). Seven extreme drought events were identified (1890, 1902, 1956, 1974, 1999, 2006, 2011), and radial growth before, during, and after each event was determined. Based on ring-width index values, resistance, recovery, and resilience indices were calculated. The results indicated a significant correlation (p ≤ 0.05) between annual radial increment and climate indices along the stem (0.56 to 0.80). Climatic sensitivity was higher in the lower part of the stem, with mean sensitivity (MS) and expressed population signal (EPS) values of 0.38 and 0.97, respectively. Resistance index values ranged from 0.44 to 0.76 and were better expressed in higher sections of the stem. Resilience indices changed over time. Regardless of the height of the tree stem, the latest extreme drought events (1999, 2006, and 2011) have led to a lower resilience of trees, indicating that their recovery capacity has decreased. Therefore, forestry practices in the study area may consider managing tree density as a strategy to regulate the stress in competition and to increase the tolerance of trees to drought.

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Dendroclimatic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature for the Mayo River basin in northwestern Mexico

Cited by 6 publications

References 51 publications

Tree Rings as Proxies of Historical Runoff in a National Park in Northern Mexico: A Major Ecosystem Service Provider

Tree Rings as Proxies of Historical Runoff in a National Park in Northern Mexico: A Major Ecosystem Service Provider

Sensitivity of Four Indices of Meteorological Drought for Rainfed Maize Yield Prediction in the State of Sinaloa, Mexico

Resilience of Pinus durangensis Martínez in Extreme Drought Periods: Vertical and Horizontal Response of Tree Rings

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