Demonstration of Improved Trajectory Prediction Using Future Air Navigation Systems

Abstract

This paper aims to demonstrate how current technology can ass ist to improve ground-based trajectory prediction. The lack of accurate ground-based trajectory prediction is often associated with the inefficiencies resulting from current Air Traffic Control (ATC) practices. To this purpose, results from different ground-based Trajectory Predictors (TPs)-both standard and enhanced with Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) data-link-are compared using operations into Los Angeles (LAX). At first sight, direct use of trajectory information down-linked through FANS from the aircraft's Flight Management System (FMS) seems logical, but numerous arguments exist against that approach. Instead, this research inferred parameters as speed schedule and aircraft mass from the FMS down-linked trajectory. Contrary to the trajectory data itself, these parameters can be used as input to many legacy TPs and are often unknown such that nominal values must be assume d. This paper indicates that with use of this inferred information significant improvements in ground-based trajectory prediction can be achieved. The 95% spread in the estimate time of arrival and top of descent error were reduced by a maximum 79% and 86%, respectively. The predicted

Understanding Extended Projected Profile (EPP) Trajectory Error Using a Medium-Fidelity Aircraft Simulation

“…Mondoloni and Bayraktutar state that the intent error caused by vectoring is among the highest-impact factors that affect prediction accuracy, due to the significant effects on cross- track and along-track error [11]. Furthermore, regarding longitudinal uncertainty, ground-based trajectory generators often have inadequate knowledge of an aircraft's speed schedule and weight, which results in inaccuracies in the climb and descent portions of the flight [6,12].…”

“…Several studies [5,6,7,8,9] have demonstrated potential uses for, and illustrated shortcomings of, the data contained within the EPP trajectory. However, none of these studies has attempted to characterize the EPP error that results from an aircraft's own trajectory prediction error.…”

Data-Driven Trajectory Uncertainty Quantification For Climbing Aircraft To Improve Ground-Based Trajectory Prediction

“…In [15], aircraft manufacturers' aircraft performance softwares are used to compensate errors from thrust and drag models for better estimation of climb schedules. In some studies, it is emphasized that intent or information sharing between onboard and ground systems may also be helpful for more accurate predictions [16][17]. The authors of [18] proposed sharing top-of-climb data with the ground for better estimation of aircraft initial mass.…”

A Framework for Assessing and Managing the Impact of ANSP Actions on Flight Efficiency

“…To implement this performance framework, Airservices, the Australian ANSP, makes use of its in-house developed Dalí trajectory modeller. Dalí was originally developed to trial different methods of integrating aircraftderived data in ground-based automation systems, and proved to be capable of independently computing accurate trajectories compared to those down-linked to Flight Management Systems (FMSs) [13][14][15][16]. The capability of Dalí to estimate the fuel burn of actual flown trajectories is being validated with satisfactory initial results (>96% accuracy).…”