Demography in a New Key: A Theory of Population Theory

Burch, Thomas K.

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-65433-1_1

Cited by 17 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Demography has an unusual relationship with theory, as it is defined by the phenomena under study, rather than any particular explanatory framework used by demographers [16][17][18]. The best-known demographic theory-'Demographic Transition Theory'-, for example, is infamously not a causal theory at all, but rather a descriptive account of the changes in fertility and mortality which typically accompany economic development.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding variation in human fertility: what can we learn from evolutionary demography?

Sear

Lawson

Kaplan

et al. 2016

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Decades of research on human fertility has presented a clear picture of how fertility varies, including its dramatic decline over the last two centuries in most parts of the world. Why fertility varies, both between and within populations, is not nearly so well understood. Fertility is a complex phenomenon, partly physiologically and partly behaviourally determined, thus an interdisciplinary approach is required to understand it. Evolutionary demographers have focused on human fertility since the 1980s. The first wave of evolutionary demographic research made major theoretical and empirical advances, investigating variation in fertility primarily in terms of fitness maximization. Research focused particularly on variation within high-fertility populations and small-scale subsistence societies and also yielded a number of hypotheses for why fitness maximization seems to break down as fertility declines during the demographic transition. A second wave of evolutionary demography research on fertility is now underway, paying much more attention to the cultural and psychological mechanisms underpinning fertility. It is also engaging with the complex, multi-causal nature of fertility variation, and with understanding fertility in complex modern and transitioning societies. Here, we summarize the history of evolutionary demographic work on human fertility, describe the current state of the field, and suggest future directions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding variation in human fertility: what can we learn from evolutionary demography?

Sear

Lawson

Kaplan

et al. 2016

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…As demography has started incorporating insights regarding its own epistemological limits, new approaches to modelling have begun to flourish. The perspective of population science becoming a model-based science (Burch, 2003b) has become appealing 6 , mirroring similar movements within the study of biological systems and evolution (Levins, 1966;Godfrey-Smith, 2006). As argued by Xie (2000), there are certainly insights to be gained from examining the successes and failures of modelling efforts in population biology (see also Silverman, 2016).…”

Section: From Empirical To Model-based Demography and Back: Uncertaimentioning

confidence: 99%

Model-Based Demography: Towards a Research Agenda

Courgeau

Bijak

Franck

et al. 2016

Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies

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This chapter aims to contribute to the debate on the role of modelbased approaches, such as agent-based modelling, in the future of demography. First we call attention to the developments of the discipline since the 17 th century, and we describe its four successive paradigms related to the period, cohort, eventhistory and multilevel perspectives. We argue that these paradigms are complementary and that demography, since its beginnings, has subscribed to the classical scientific research programme launched by the promoters of modern science. Next, we examine how simulation modelling developing in population sciences recently, may help to respond to three main challenges: how to overcome complexity in social research; how to reduce its uncertainty; and how to reinforce its theoretical foundations. We sketch a model-based research programme for demography, looking specifically at interactions between various population systems. We then show how this approach might conform to the classical scientific research programme, in order to take advantage of its benefits.

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“…The idea that simulations do not provide insight for demography is at variance with experience in neighbouring disciplines, such as epidemiology and ecology (e.g., Grimm and Railsback 2005 ; Longini et al 2005 ). The precision of simulation models, a feature that has been described as central for demographic theory by Tom Burch ( 1996 , 2003 ), allows the use of simulation in transformational mechanisms in a way that is homothetic to the use of analytical models. We therefore now move to instances in which micro-level simulations are used to derive insights about macro-level population outcomes, that is, as aggregation tools in transformational mechanisms.…”

Section: Transformational (Micro→macro) Mechanisms In Demographymentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating macro- and micro-level approaches in the explanation of population change

Billari

2015

Population Studies

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Demographers study population change across time and place, and traditionally they place a strong emphasis on a long-range view of population change. This paper builds on current reflections on how to structure the study of population change and proposes a two-stage perspective. The first stage, discovery, focuses on the production of novel evidence at the population level. The second stage, explanation, develops accounts of demographic change and tests how the action and interaction of individuals generate what is discovered in the first stage. This explanatory stage also provides the foundation for the prediction of demographic change. The transformation of micro-level actions and interactions into macro-level population outcomes is identified as a key challenge for the second stage. Specific instances of research are discussed.

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Demography in a New Key: A Theory of Population Theory

Cited by 17 publications

References 19 publications

Understanding variation in human fertility: what can we learn from evolutionary demography?

Understanding variation in human fertility: what can we learn from evolutionary demography?

Model-Based Demography: Towards a Research Agenda

Integrating macro- and micro-level approaches in the explanation of population change

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