Demography and the statistics of lifetime economic transfers under individual stochasticity

Caswell, Hal; Kluge, Fanny A.

doi:10.4054/demres.2015.32.19

Cited by 18 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 13 publications

(19 reference statements)

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“…Preliminary analysis showed that the respondent's earnings had no association with life satisfaction among Add Health respondents (r = .013, p = .116, n = 14,414), perhaps because of their relative youth and little variance in earnings (M = 11,744, median = 8,000 SD = 17,289, IQR = 16,500, n = 14,425). This was consistent with earlier studies, which showed that variance in earnings generally increased with age (Beach, Finnie, & Gray, 2010;Caswell & Kluge, 2015;Lam & Levison, 1992).…”

Section: Control Variablessupporting

confidence: 93%

Country roads, take me home… to my friends: How intelligence, population density, and friendship affect modern happiness

Kanazawa

2016

British J of Psychology

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We propose the savanna theory of happiness, which suggests that it is not only the current consequences of a given situation but also its ancestral consequences that affect individuals' life satisfaction and explains why such influences of ancestral consequences might interact with intelligence. We choose two varied factors that characterize basic differences between ancestral and modern life - population density and frequency of socialization with friends - as empirical test cases. As predicted by the theory, population density is negatively, and frequency of socialization with friends is positively, associated with life satisfaction. More importantly, the main associations of life satisfaction with population density and socialization with friends significantly interact with intelligence, and, in the latter case, the main association is reversed among the extremely intelligent. More intelligent individuals experience lower life satisfaction with more frequent socialization with friends. This study highlights the utility of incorporating evolutionary perspectives in the study of subjective well-being.

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Section: Control Variablessupporting

confidence: 93%

Country roads, take me home… to my friends: How intelligence, population density, and friendship affect modern happiness

Kanazawa

2016

British J of Psychology

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“…Individual stochasticity (Caswell 2009) is the random variation among individuals in the outcomes of applying identical vital rates. Individual stochasticity is inherent in any set of mortality and fertility rates, and given those rates, we can calculate the consequences of these stochastic events (Caswell 2009(Caswell , 2011(Caswell , 2014aCaswell and Kluge 2015). Individual stochasticity has been found to be a major contributor to variance in LRO in many species (Caswell 2011;Tuljapurkar, Steiner, and Orzack 2009;Steiner and Tuljapurkar 2012).…”

Section: Individual Stochasticity and The Sources Of Variancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sensitivity analysis of these models will show how the statistics of LRO respond to changes in the parameters of the mortality and fertility schedules . Finally, we note that the method can be applied to rewards other than reproductive output, including health and longevity (Caswell and Zarulli, unpublished data) and lifetime accumulation of economic rewards (Caswell and Kluge 2015). 5.…”

Section: Individual Stochasticitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Lifetime reproduction and the second demographic transition: Stochasticity and individual variation

Daalen¹,

Caswell²

2015

DemRes

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“…It also applies to periodic and stochastic time-varying models, by applying Theorems 1 and 2 to the models in Caswell (2011). The method can also be applied to rewards other than reproductive output, including health status (Caswell and Zarulli 2015) and economic transfers (Caswell and Kluge 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lifetime reproductive output: individual stochasticity, variance, and sensitivity analysis

2017

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Lifetime reproductive output (LRO) determines per-generation growth rates, establishes criteria for population growth or decline, and is an important component of fitness. Empirical measurements of LRO reveal high variance among individuals. This variance may result from genuine heterogeneity in individual properties, or from individual stochasticity, the outcome of probabilistic demographic events during the life cycle. To evaluate the extent of individual stochasticity requires the calculation of the statistics of LRO from a demographic model. Mean LRO is routinely calculated (as the net reproductive rate), but the calculation of variances has only recently received attention. Here, we present a complete, exact, analytical, closed-form solution for all the moments of LRO, for age-and stage-classified populations. Previous studies have relied on simulation, iterative solutions, or closed-form analytical solutions that capture only part of the sources of variance. We also present the sensitivity and elasticity of all of the statistics of LRO to parameters defining survival, stage transitions, and (st)agespecific fertility. Selection can operate on variance in LRO only if the variance results from genetic heterogeneity. The potential opportunity for selection is quantified by Crow's index I, the ratio of the variance to the square of the mean. But variance due to individual stochasticity is only an apparent opportunity for selection. In a comparison of a range of age-classified models for human populations, we find that proportional increases in mortality have very small effects on the mean and variance of LRO, but large positive effects on I. Proportional increases in fertility increase both the mean and variance of LRO, but reduce I. For a sizeclassified tree population, the elasticity of both mean and variance of LRO to stage-specific mortality are negative; the elasticities to stage-specific fertility are positive.

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Demography and the statistics of lifetime economic transfers under individual stochasticity

Cited by 18 publications

References 13 publications

Country roads, take me home… to my friends: How intelligence, population density, and friendship affect modern happiness

Country roads, take me home… to my friends: How intelligence, population density, and friendship affect modern happiness

Lifetime reproduction and the second demographic transition: Stochasticity and individual variation

Lifetime reproductive output: individual stochasticity, variance, and sensitivity analysis

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