Demography and the Future of Democracy

Abstract

The world is in the midst of a demographic recession. This counters what should be a long-term trend toward greater democracy. Recent research has shown that progress toward stable democracy is strongly associated with progress in the demographic transition. Since most of the world is rapidly dropping in fertility as more countries complete this transition, democracy should be spreading. However, a resurgence of anxiety, nationalism, and support for strong-man governance is associated with sudden waves of immigration from unfamiliar sources. Because certain parts of the world—mainly Central America, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East—still have very young and rapidly growing populations who suffer from poor economic prospects, adverse climate change, and bad governance, those regions are sending waves of migrants seeking asylum to Europe and the United States, raising anxieties that undermine liberal democratic governance. Global democracy is thus being tugged in opposing directions by current demographic trends. Improving governance in poorer countries to cope with the negative impact of climate change and to create better economic prospects, as well as efforts to reduce fertility, are essential to diminish the surges of migrants and restore the impetus toward democracy that should prevail in mature societies.

Did Austerity Cause Brexit?

“…Throughout, the Leave campaign wrongly claimed that the "United Kingdom sends £350 million to the European Union every single week." 6 The correct figure is £181 million, amounting to 1.2 percent of overall UK government spending. 7 The campaign suggested that the United Kingdom's contribution to the EU budget could be used to support the National Health Service (NHS), which faced pressures that the campaign in turn blamed on immigration.…”

“…The Guardian, "Cameron Did Not Think EU Referendum Would Happen," https://goo.gl/Vsmgnt, accessed March 3, 2019 6. The following in-line quotes are from advertisements run by the Vote Leave campaign.…”

Support for Democracy in the Age of Rising Inequality and Population Aging

“…Population aging, known as an age structure where there is an increasing proportion of dependent elderly and a decreasing number of descendants, has become the feature of developed countries in the past decades. The phenomenon requires state policies to manage the problems arising from the transition from different age structures, especially dramatic fiscal reforms to maintain welfare regimes sustainability (Cincotta, 2017 ; Goldstone & Diamond, 2020 , 869). The structural and institutional changes that widened economic inequality further put pressure on the state to provide welfare measures to lift living standards for those in need.…”

Struggles for Political Change in the Arab World

“…A 2015 study found that 19 of the 33 most water-stressed countries by 2040 will be in the Middle East and North Africa (Maddocks, Young, and Reig 2015). Just as the Syrian drought of 2007-09 helped to create the conditions (such as displacement of rural populations, and rising food prices) for a meltdown of the political order in 2011, so future droughts will destabilize political orders in the region (Goldstone and Diamond 2020).…”